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With the season concluded, Transfermarkt has updated the market values of 497 Bundesliga players. The most valuable player by some distance is Michael Olise. The French winger saw his market value increase by another €10m to €150m, and with second-placed Jamal Musiala dropping by €20m to €100m, the gap between the two Bayern Munich stars is now € 50m. There is also significant movement for Olise and Musiala, as their teammate Aleksander Pavlović and RB Leipzig rookie Yan Diomande saw their values increase from €75m to €90m. Let’s break it all down.
First, we start at the very top, where Olise’s rise to absolute elite status continues. “Olise is now one of the top five most valuable players in the world,” Transfermarkt Market Value Coordinator, Tobias Kröger, said. “With goals against Real Madrid and PSG in the Champions League, the 24-year-old proved that he can be decisive at the highest level. His 52-goal contributions in 52 games further reflect an extraordinary season. Together with Pavlović (+€15m to €90m), Olise is one of the big winners of the update.
Bayern market values: Kane drops due to age – Musiala and Davies struggling
Elsewhere at Bayern, there have been some downgrades. The one star that stands out is Musiala. “Musiala still struggles with the consequences of his serious injury he suffered last summer at the FIFA Club World Cup,” Kröger said. “Despite the downgrade, it is important to note that at €100m, he still belongs to the elite. This summer, Transfermarkt reviewed players with a market value of €100m or more, and Musiala, along with comparable players abroad, was reevaluated. That, too, is a reason for his drop in market value.”
Despite playing another fantastic season, England captain Harry Kane saw his market value drop by €5m from €65m to €60m. “Kane will turn 33 this summer, and, unfortunately, that means that he receives another age-related downgrade,” Kröger said. “Even though he is being downgraded, Kane remains in his own category among players in his age group. His market value is still twice as much as the second-placed Marquinhos. That further underlines Kane’s high status.”
While Kane’s status remains high, Canadian men’s national team star Alphonso Davies continues to struggle. “He just can’t shake his injury problems,” Kröger said. “Now the World Cup is in danger, and he hasn’t been in form for Bayern Munich for quite some time. He still has attributes that make him interesting on the transfer market. But having a baseline level of fitness is essential for him to demonstrate the skills that make him valuable. If he doesn’t get fit soon, then his market value is in danger of sliding further.” Indeed, it is a worrying trend for the 25-year-old left-back. Ahead of his ACL injury, Davies was on course to see his market value increase significantly; now, he has dropped for the second time in a row, this time by €5m from €45m to €40m.
Bundesliga market values: Diomande continues to rise – Italian kids impress at Dortmund
Among the very top players in Germany is Leipzig’s winger Diomande. “Yan Diomande is one of the most interesting players this summer,” Kröger said. “It is not expected that all the big clubs will try to sign him.” Diomande recently told Transfermarkt that he plans to play in the Champions League with Leipzig. But he also added: “You never know in football.” Indeed, Transfermarkt understands that if a club were willing to pay more than €130m, Leipzig would listen. “The rumours have already become a steady stream,” Kröger said. “Perhaps he can use the World Cup to become a €100m player.”
That makes Diomande the most valuable non-Bayern player in the Bundesliga. A spot that would usually be reserved for Borussia Dortmund stars. Indeed, there is a chance that Dortmund have once again two rising stars who could shoot up the market-value rankings: Italians Samuele Inácio and Luca Reggiani. By percentage, Inacio is the second-biggest winner in the market value update, behind Bayern’s Bara Sapoko Ndiaye (+1233.3% from €300,000 to €4m). Inacio saw his market value increase by 400% from €3m to €15m. “Inacio showed his talent over the last few games of the season,” Kröger said. “The forward scored his first goal and could be one of the big stars next season. He is an exciting young talent.”
The same is true for Reggiani. The center-back saw his market value double from €5m to €10m. “He, too, was able to collect some playing time towards the tail end of the season,” Kröger said. “In those games, he was able to show his talent, and it is only going to be a matter of time until Italian clubs try to sign him.” That’s good for his market value, even if Dortmund seem to plan with the 18-year-old center-back next season. Reggiani is expected to take up Niklas Süle’s place in the squad.
Bundesliga market value update: Upgrades for Maza, Manzambi and Sano
Elsewhere, talents also stood out. At Bayer Leverkusen, for example, Ibrahim Maza has quickly become the summer signing of the season. In a year in which Leverkusen spent significant money on other stars, Maza was almost an afterthought. But the Algerian playmaker, who was signed from Hertha Berlin last summer, has quickly turned out to be one of Leverkusen’s most important players. “He continues to develop step-by-step and could play a big role at the World Cup,” Kröger said. “The Algerian is one of the most interesting players in the Bundesliga and has already been linked with the likes of Man City.” Maza saw his market value increase by €5m from €40m to €45m.
That’s also true for Freiburg’s Johan Manzambi. “Manzambi is one of the ascending stars this season and also left his mark in the Europa League as well,” Kröger said. “He has the sort of player profile that is in high demand on the market. He is dynamic and is very direct, which makes him interesting for Premier League clubs where top teams look for players with such qualities.” Manzambi was a key player in Freiburg’s run to the Europa League, where Aston Villa stopped them. Even in that game, where Freiburg were outclassed, Manzambi still showed his qualities. With that in mind, the midfielder saw his market value increase by €15m from €35m to €50m.
Another player with Premier League potential is Mainz’s Kaishu Sano. “Sano is one of the best holding-six players in the Bundesliga,” Kröger said. “This season, he drew attention by becoming one of the most complete midfielders in Germany. There are rumours that the Japanese international is looking for a move to the Premier League after the World Cup. He definitely has the footballing quality and physical strength to be competitive in England. There is a chance that he could become Mainz’s record departure.” Mainz’s current record departure is Brajan Gruda, who was sold to Brighton for €31.5m. After a jump of €15m, Sano’s new market value is €40m, which would see him easily beat Gruda’s record.
How Transfermarkt market values work
The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees.
The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).
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