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Full tournament simulated
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Who would win the 2026 World Cup if every match was decided purely by the squad market value of each national team? Using the latest national team valuations on Transfermarkt, we've simulated the entire tournament to find out. The rules are straightforward. Each group is decided by the highest squad market values, then in every knockout tie, the nation with the higher total squad market value advances to the next round. So how would the tournament pan out if reality followed our market values? Let’s find out.
According to Transfermarkt’s market values and the format of the competition, France would be crowned world champions for the third time. Didier Deschamps' side, currently the most valuable national team in world football, would comfortably navigate out of a group with Norway taking second place and Senegal in third. “Les Bleus” would then beat Japan in the Round of 32, before overcoming Germany, the Netherlands and none other than Spain to claim their spot in the final.
To the surprise of many, waiting for them in the final would be none other than England. Based on “The Three Lions” having a squad market value of €1.36 billion, they would comfortably finish top of Group L, before beating Senegal in the Round of 32. After that, they would beat co-hosts Mexico in the Last 16, before an impressive win over Brazil in the semi-finals to reach their first World Cup final since 1966. Unfortunately for England, their squad market value sits at just €160m less than France’s. As such, France would technically beat them in what would undoubtedly be a dramatic final between the European goliaths.
Elsewhere, Spain would ultimately come up short by only reaching the semi-finals, while Belgium would join them at that point in the tournament after overcoming Croatia and Türkiye. Current world champions Argentina would somewhat underpeform, losing in the quarter-finals to Portugal. In terms of the biggest overachievers in our predictions, Canada reaching the Round of 16 would undoubtedly stand out as a remarkable achievement, considering the co-hosts have the 26th most valuable squad in the competition. And, unfortunately, Germany are perhaps the most obvious underachievers, due to their elimination in the Round of 16 despite having the fifth most valuable squad.
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