The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 10

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 10, which kicks off Thursday with the Raiders at the Broncos.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

• If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet. You can also take a look at the latest update of each team's rest-of-season strength of schedule.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

LV-DEN | ATL-IND | NYG-CHI | BUF-MIA | BAL-MIN | CLE-NYJ | NE-TB
NO-CAR | JAX-HOU | ARI-SEA | LAR-SF | DET-WAS | PIT-LAC | PHI-GB

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Projected score: Broncos 28, Raiders 15

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, J.K. Dobbins, Courtland Sutton, Brock Bowers

Fantasy scoop: Troy Franklin has seen eight-plus targets in three straight games and now trails Sutton by only one (65-64) for the team lead. Of course, Sutton has been substantially more productive, turning his usage into a 38-566-4 receiving line (13.4 fantasy PPG), compared to a 37-385-4 line for Franklin (11.6 PPG). Franklin's 58% catch rate and 6.0 yards per target have him sitting 40th among receivers in yards despite ranking 17th in targets.

Franklin sits top eight at the position in both end zone targets and air yards, which provides him with plenty of upside, but the problem is that his two big games (24-plus fantasy points in both) have not been enough to offset his seven dud weeks (under 13.0 in all of them, averaging 7.6 PPG). Franklin does have a good Week 10 matchup (more on that in a second), but he remains a very boom/bust flex.

Shadow Report: Upgrade Denver's receivers against a struggling Raiders pass defense that overhauled its secondary last week. Starting perimeter corner Kyu Blu Kelly was replaced by third-round rookie Darien Porter and primary slot Darnay Holmes was replaced by undrafted rookie Greedy Vance and more three-safety looks. The result was the Jaguars' shorthanded receiver room putting up 185 yards, the second most the Raiders have allowed to a WR room this season. The Raiders now sit top five on the season in catches, yards and fantasy points allowed to receivers. Sutton, Franklin, Marvin Mims Jr. and Pat Bryant should be upgraded.

Over/under: 43.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 89% (Highest)

Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts

Projected score: Colts 29, Falcons 20

Lineup locks: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts Sr.

Fantasy scoop: Pitts a lineup lock? It's not hard to justify, considering (A) his recent usage (B) two top tight ends on a bye and (C) a terrific Week 10 matchup. Pitts has handled seven-plus targets in three straight games and sits top five among tight ends in routes, target share, targets and catches. He hasn't seen enough goal line work (one TD and one end zone target), but he's still 11th at the position in fantasy PPG.

Pitts, who has 13-plus fantasy points in three of his past five outings, will face a Colts defense that sits top five in targets, catches, yards and fantasy points to tight ends. Indianapolis has allowed one TD and 19-plus fantasy points to tight ends in four straight, including 20-plus-point efforts by Oronde Gadsden II and Trey McBride.

Shadow Report: Jaylon Jones made his 2025 debut on Sunday and successfully shadowed DK Metcalf. Jones aligned against Metcalf on 22 of his 33 routes, including 21 of 23 on the perimeter. Pittsburgh's top receiver was held to 6 yards on four targets, totaling 2.6 fantasy points. It's possible Jones shadows London this week as Sauce Gardner gets acclimated to the Colts' scheme, but either way, London will have his hands full against the Colts' new-look perimeter corner situation. The Colts have allowed the second-most receptions and eighth-most fantasy points to receivers, but the recent improvements suggest this will be a tough assignment for London and Darnell Mooney.

Over/under: 49.3 (7th highest)
Win probability: Colts 80% (3rd highest)

New York Giants @ Chicago Bears

Projected score: Bears 28, Giants 27

Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, D'Andre Swift, Wan'Dale Robinson, Rome Odunze

Fantasy scoop: In the Giants' first full game without Cam Skattebo, the duo of Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary formed a near-even backfield committee. Singletary surprisingly led the way, handling eight carries and two targets on 31 snaps (16 routes). Tracy managed five carries and four targets on 25 snaps (14 routes).

Tracy was expected to operate as the lead back (as he did most of last season), but especially after Singletary outplayed him (51 yards to Tracy's 37), we need to plan as if this will be a near-even split for the time being. Week 10 presents a solid matchup against a Bears defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry (fifth highest) to RBs. Both backs are best viewed as flex options, with Tracy the slightly preferred option.

Shadow Report: If Paulson Adebo returns from injury this week, he's a candidate to shadow Odunze. New York's top corner traveled with Terry McLaurin in Week 1 (McLaurin scored 4.7 fantasy points), A.J. Brown in Week 6 (14.0) and, prior to leaving injured, Courtland Sutton in Week 7 (8.9, prior to Adebo's departure). New York continues to struggle against receivers (top seven in catches, yards and fantasy points allowed), so while Odunze's ceiling would be limited in this scenario, he remains a fantasy starter. Note that if Adebo remains out (not to mention No. 2 CB Cor'Dale Flott), this will be a plus matchup across the board for the Chicago passing game.

Shadow Report: Upgrade the Giants' wide receivers against a Chicago pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers. After surrendering 17-plus fantasy points to three Bengals receivers Sunday, the Bears have allowed 13 TDs (second most) and 9.8 yards per target (second highest) to the position. Chicago remains very short-handed at corner with Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon on IR, which sets up Robinson, Darius Slayton and Ray-Ray McCloud III with a terrific matchup against Tyrique Stevenson, Nahshon Wright, Nick McCloud and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

Over/under: 55.2 (Highest)
Win probability: Bears 56% (11th highest)

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Projected score: Bills 30, Dolphins 20

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, De'Von Achane, James Cook III, Jaylen Waddle

Fantasy scoop: Dalton Kincaid continues to break math, having played just 44% of Buffalo's offensive snaps and yet to clear six targets in a game, but still sitting eighth in TE fantasy points thanks to four touchdowns. Of course, Kincaid's production has been a bit boom or bust, as he has scored 14.8-plus fantasy points four times but fewer than 10 three times. Kincaid has reached 100 receiving yards in two of his past three outings, but those games bookended a 1-23-0 receiving line in Week 8.

Kincaid's efficiency (12.5 yards per target) and scoring (four TDs despite an expected total of 1.6) are unsustainable, and he can't be expected to continue producing top-10 numbers in yardage and TDs while ranking 25th among tight ends in targets. Kincaid's role in Buffalo's high-scoring offense is enough to keep him in the TE1 discussion, but he's more of a fringe play than a solid starter. He has some added appeal this week against a Miami defense that allowed him a 5-66-1 showing when these teams met in Week 3.

Shadow Report: Christian Benford is a candidate to shadow Waddle this week. Buffalo's top corner has shadowed top receivers throughout the season, including Tyreek Hill when these teams met in Week 3. Hill is, of course, done for the season, leaving Waddle as Miami's clear top wideout. Buffalo hasn't been overly effective against receivers, and both Waddle (14.9) and Hill (15.9) put together solid fantasy days in the first meeting. With receivers Benford has shadowed averaging a strong 16.9 fantasy PPG, Waddle can be started as usual.

Over/under: 50.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: Bills 84% (2nd highest)

Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings

Projected Score: Ravens 28, Vikings 23

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Justin Jefferson, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison

Fantasy scoop: Mark Andrews scored two touchdowns in Jackson's return from injury last week. That allowed the veteran tight end a solid 16.6 fantasy points, but the problem is that he was targeted only three times. Andrews now has three or fewer targets in five of eight games and is averaging a lowly 4.1 per game on the season. He has also fallen short of 35 yards in all but one game.

Andrews isn't the fantasy force he was prior to 2024 and, much like last season, he's best viewed as an extremely TD-dependent fringe TE1. However, he does have some added appeal this week against a Vikings defense that has allowed 18-plus fantasy points to Oronde Gadsden II and Sam LaPorta over the past two weeks.

Shadow Report: Nate Wiggins is a candidate to shadow Jefferson this week. Baltimore's top perimeter corner traveled with Nico Collins when the game was competitive in Week 5, Davante Adams full-time in Week 6 and part-time against Rome Odunze and Jaylen Waddle over the past two weeks. Those four receivers averaged 13.9 fantasy PPG in their game against the Ravens, with three clearing 14 points. Baltimore's defense is headed in the right direction, but even with Wiggins on the other side, Jefferson can be started as usual.

Over/under: 50.5 (5th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 67% (9th highest)

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets

Projected score: Browns 19, Jets 18

Lineup locks: Quinshon Judkins, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson

Fantasy scoop: When we last saw the Browns (Week 8), Harold Fannin Jr. posted a 6-62-1 receiving line on eight targets, which worked out to a career-high 18.4 fantasy points. Fannin has produced 15-plus fantasy points in two of his past three games, though he's been under 11.5 in five of his past seven. Fannin's recent success coincided with missed action by David Njoku and Cedric Tillman, both of whom are expected to play in Week 10. Fannin's 18.6% target share and strong play are enough to keep him in the TE1 mix, but with Njoku also involved and the Browns struggling with offensive efficiency, the rookie certainly carries risk.

Shadow Report: The Jets traded Sauce Gardner on Tuesday, which is notable considering that, with Gardner often shadowing opponents' top receivers, secondary receivers have thrived against the Jets. In fact, even with Gardner playing well, the Jets have allowed the fourth-highest EPA against the pass.

Jerry Jeudy, who was likely to draw shadow coverage from Gardner had he not been dealt, and Cedric Tillman (if he returns from IR) can now be upgraded in this matchup. Of course, Jeudy has yet to score a touchdown or clear 11.6 fantasy points in a game this season and he was held without a single catch (albeit while shadowed by Christian Gonzalez) in his most-recent game. Even with the better matchup, he's best left on benches.

Over/under: 37.4 (Lowest)
Win probability: Browns 51% (Lowest)

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected score: Patriots 25, Buccaneers 23

Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Stefon Diggs

Fantasy scoop: With Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined last week, TreVeyon Henderson was the Patriots' lead back. The rookie played 51 snaps (75%), totaling 14 carries and six targets. Terrell Jennings, the only other back to see the field, added 11 carries (one for a TD) and one target on 17 snaps. Henderson played fairly well, posting career highs in touches (18), yards (87) and fantasy points (12.7). Henderson has found the end zone once in nine games but has 75-plus yards in consecutive games.

If Stevenson returns this week, Henderson will revert to no more than a bench option. However, if Stevenson remains out, Henderson will be a viable RB2 against a Bucs defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs, with most of that damage coming in the passing game (a strength for Henderson).

Shadow Report: Christian Gonzalez is a candidate to shadow Egbuka this week. New England's standout corner traveled with Jerry Jeudy in Week 8 (Jeudy had zero catches) and Drake London in Week 9 prior to leaving injured (London scored 25.5 fantasy points prior to Gonzalez's departure, though two TDs were against Marcus Jones). Though London's big game should provide some optimism for Egbuka's outlook, it's worth noting that this was the first instance this season of a receiver reaching 18 fantasy points against New England. Of course, like London, Egbuka will escape to the slot at times, so he won't see Gonzalez full time. Egbuka remains on the WR1 radar.

Over/under: 48.2 (8th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 56% (12th highest)

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Projected score: Panthers 23, Saints 16

Lineup locks: Rico Dowdle, Chris Olave, Tetairoa McMillan

Fantasy scoop: There was a clear changing of the guard in the Carolina backfield on Sunday. After two straight weeks on the short end of a committee, Dowdle took over as the feature back in Week 9, totaling 25 carries and three targets on 40 snaps. Chuba Hubbard, meanwhile, was reduced to five carries and one target on 11 snaps.

Despite facing a tough Packers run defense, Dowdle produced 130 yards and two TDs on 25 carries, adding 11 yards on three targets. Dowdle has scored 28-plus fantasy points in his past three games as Carolina's lead back. He's now very much a lineup lock and has a solid Week 10 matchup against a New Orleans defense that has allowed the seventh-most yards to RBs. Hubbard is safe to drop, though he is a fine insurance stash.

Over/under: 38.8 (13th highest)
Win probability: Panthers 75% (5th highest)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Projected score: Texans 23, Jaguars 19

Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Nico Collins

Shadow Report: Expect Thomas to draw shadow coverage from Derek Stingley Jr. this week. When these teams met in Week 3, Stingley shadowed Thomas on all five of his perimeter routes prior to leaving injured. Kamari Lassiter then took over and shadowed Thomas on his final 19 perimeter routes. Thomas was held in check, totaling 55 yards on six targets. Stingley has also shadowed Davante Adams (7.2 fantasy points in the game), Mike Evans (10.6) and Courtland Sutton (10.0).

This is a tough assignment, not only for Thomas, but for the entire Jaguars receiver room -- including newcomer Jakobi Meyers. Houston has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points, the lowest catch rate (54%) and only four TDs to the position. Thomas, who has been held to 12.0 or fewer fantasy points in seven of eight games and was targeted only five times last week, is no more than a WR3.

Over/under: 42.2 (12th highest)
Win probability: Texans 71% (6th highest)

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Projected score: Seahawks 26, Cardinals 21

Lineup locks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Seattle returned from its Week 8 bye with a bit of a tweak to its running back deployment. Kenneth Walker III played a season-high 54% of the offensive snaps in Week 9 and totaled 11 carries and two targets. That compared favorably to Zach Charbonnet (eight carries and one target on 18 snaps), who had out-snapped Walker in five of their prior six games together this season.

Despite the promotion, Walker was held below 10 fantasy points for the fourth game in a row and hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3. Charbonnet, meanwhile, has five TDs in seven games, but he's averaging 2.9 yards per carry and has cleared 12.4 fantasy points in a game only once. Walker remains the better play of the two, but he's no more than a fringe RB2.

Over/under: 46.9 (10th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 70% (7th highest)

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Projected score: Rams 28, 49ers 22

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle

Fantasy scoop: Jennings isn't all the way back, but he's getting close. The Niners' top receiver posted a 4-41-1 receiving line this past Sunday, and his 14.1 fantasy points were his most since he scored 19.9 in Week 2. Jennings hasn't cleared 45 yards in a game since that Week 2 effort, but he's seen a healthy 24.7% target share during his past three outings. That's nearly identical to his 24.9% share when he was fantasy's No. 24 scoring receiver last season. Jennings is a fine WR2/3 play this week, and it's possible he'll be even more productive once Brock Purdy is back under center.

Over/under: 49.7 (6th highest)
Win probability: Rams 70% (8th highest)

Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders

Projected score: Lions 29, Commanders 22

Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Sam LaPorta

Fantasy scoop: With Jayden Daniels out for the foreseeable future, Marcus Mariota will work as the Commanders' starting quarterback. The dual-threat quarterback has played over half the snaps in five games since joining Washington and has averaged a healthy 18.7 fantasy PPG in those outings. Mariota threw for multiple touchdowns in three of the games and ran for at least 20 yards in all five (35.6 average).

Mariota's play is enough to make him a streaming option when the matchup is right, though he's not the best choice this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed the fifth-lowest EPA against the pass while also ranking top five in INTs and sacks. Daniels' absence means we're downgrading the Washington offense, especially considering that no Commander skill player is averaging more than 12.5 fantasy PPG during Mariota's three 2025 starts. Samuel is the only lineup lock, primarily because Terry McLaurin remains out.

Shadow Report: The Commanders have allowed the second-most receiving yards, sixth-most fantasy points and 11 TDs (seventh most) to receivers. And that was prior to losing Marshon Lattimore to a torn ACL. Washington's struggling defense is good news for Detroit's passing game, and we're obviously upgrading St. Brown and Jameson Williams against Mike Sainristil, Jonathan Jones and Trey Amos.

Over/under: 51 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Lions 75% (4th highest)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers

Projected score: Chargers 26, Steelers 22

Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Jaylen Warren, Ladd McConkey, DK Metcalf, Oronde Gadsden II

Fantasy scoop: Metcalf was held to a season-low 2.6 fantasy points Sunday. Metcalf, who matched a season low with four targets, has been shadowed in four games and struggled in all four, posting 12.3 points in Week 1 (Sauce Gardner), 12.2 points in Week 3 (Carlton Davis III), 8.0 points in Week 7 (DJ Turner) and 2.6 points in Week 8 (Jaylon Jones). That's accounted for half of Metcalf's games, though he's scored 16-plus fantasy points in three of his other four outings and the exception was a tough matchup against Seattle.

Metcalf might not be shadowed this week, but he's set to face a Los Angeles defense that has allowed just four TDs and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers. Metcalf has been way too dependent on touchdowns (he's 39th among receivers in targets but seventh in TDs), which makes him a boom/bust fantasy start. He's a fringe WR2 against the Chargers.

Shadow Report: Upgrade Chargers receivers against a Steelers defense that has allowed the most targets, catches, yards and fantasy points to receivers. Pittsburgh has allowed 50-plus fantasy points to the opposing WR room in three of its past five outings, which includes 55.4 to the Colts in Week 9. McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston should see a boost in volume and production here in Week 10. All are viable fantasy starters.

Over/under: 48 (9th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 65% (10th highest)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers

Projected score: Eagles 26, Packers 26

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Romeo Doubs, Dallas Goedert

Fantasy scoop: Tucker Kraft (knee) is done for the season, which means a larger role for Luke Musgrave, who was actually selected one round earlier than Kraft in the 2023 draft. With Kraft departing Sunday's game early, Musgrave stepped in and played 48% of the offensive snaps -- his highest usage since Week 3 of last season. He was targeted three times and caught all three for 34 yards.

Musgrave hasn't produced double-digit fantasy points in any game since his rookie season and, even in a larger role moving forward, he is unlikely to produce consistent TE1 numbers. While he's not the worst speculative bench add (especially if you rostered Kraft), he shouldn't be in Week 10 lineups against an Eagles defense that has allowed only one TD, the third-fewest fantasy points and a league-low 4.8 yards per target to tight ends.

Over/under: 51.6 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Eagles 52% (13th highest)