Ranking the power conferences to open 2025-26

Any reactions we have to the 2025-26 men's college basketball season will be considered premature, being just three nights in.

What won't be an overreaction is an early gauge of the power conferences.

Last season we correctly predicted the SEC would be the best, by strength, number of bids, average seeding -- and eventual champion. This year, instead of measuring just by NCAA bids and potential seeding, we're ranking the power conferences based on answering on a single question: Which league is most likely to produce the 2026 national champion?

Given its history this century, the No. 1 choice might surprise you. Happy hoops!

Note: "Current bids" refers to the number of bids a conference has in the latest Bracketology. "Projected bids" refers to the number of bids a conference could have on Selection Sunday

5. ACC

Current bids: 5
Projected bids: 6
Average seed: 6.2
Bid percentage: 33.3%

Championship caliber: Duke is a legitimate and obvious national championship contender, but don't sleep on Louisville. It's hard to believe the Cardinals were a Quad 4 team just two years ago.

Joey Brackets says: In many ways, the ACC has only one way to go. The conference hasn't sent at least half of its teams to the NCAA tournament since 2018, and hasn't come close to that benchmark since ballooning to 18 members two years ago. But the bottom has been hit (we're sure this time!) and a growing number of bubble teams could lead to the league in exceeding its projection for March.

Game of the year: Duke at Louisville (Jan. 6, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

4. Big East

Current bids: 5
Projected bids: 4
Average seed: 4.8
Bid percentage: 36.4%

Championship caliber: If you live in the Northeast, buckle in for an emerging UConn-St. John's rivalry neither side is trying to downplay. Both have rosters good enough to play in April, and both have coaches with multiple national championships.

Joey Brackets says: The Big East is so much more fun with a little (a lot of?) friction. The years of Jay Wright and Villanova as the Sara Lee of college basketball -- "Nobody doesn't like them..." -- are gone. All we need now is for Danny Hurley to join Rick Pitino in a Louie Carnesecca sweater at Madison Square Garden. That hype might hide the lengthening NCAA tourney droughts for the likes of 'Nova (three years), Seton Hall (three) Georgetown (four), Butler (five) and, gulp, DePaul (we stopped counting at 20).

Game of the year: UConn at St. John's (Feb. 6, 8 p.m. ET, FOX)

3. Big 12

Current bids: 8
Projected bids: 8
Average seed: 4.3
Bid percentage: 50.0%

Championship caliber: Strangely, the Big 12 teams most talked about as Final Four-or-better candidates this year are recent additions (Houston, Arizona and BYU). Mini slides by Kansas and Baylor, not expansion, have led to the conference losing its longstanding grip on the top spot of our rankings. If and when Kansas returns to form -- which could be this season -- look out.

Joey Brackets says: The late Big 12 games every Monday during conference play are my favorite two hours of the week. There is little, if any, competition, and not much to do except be a fan of cold winter nights in old school gyms. But the basketball remains exceptional, along with the Big Monday call from Boog Sciambi and Fran Fraschilla.

Game of the year: Houston at Kansas (Feb. 23, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

2. SEC

Current bids: 11
Projected bids: 12
Average seed: 6.3
Bid percentage: 75.0%

Championship caliber: Florida's very reasonable attempt to go back-to-back for the second time this century is enough to put the SEC near the top of our list. Up to a half-dozen others are Final Four (and beyond?) good. I'm just not sure any are "cut down the nets" good.

Joey Brackets says: Let's give final props to the SEC's motherlode last season of NCAA bids (a record 14), top seeds (two 1s, two 2s), Final Four teams (two) and, of course, the champion Gators. To go from only three NCAA teams (2016) to 14 of 16 last season is beyond remarkable. It may also be unrepeatable, as the pendulum of power tends to swing both ways.

Game of the year: Florida at Kentucky (March 7, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN)

1. Big Ten

Current bids: 11
Projected bids: 10
Average seed: 5.5
Bid percentage: 55.6%

Championship caliber: It's obviously too early to really know, but Purdue, Michigan and Illinois sure look like serious Final Four contenders. And all have the star power to win once they get there, especially in Indianapolis, where there should finally be enough juice for the Big Ten to end its 25-year NCAA title drought.

Joey Brackets says: The SEC will have better numbers, but the Big Ten this season may finally trade a little quantity for quality at the top end of the bracket. Purdue cutting down the nets in Indy is the easiest storyline to track, but I'm sticking with my preseason pick of Michigan. And, on opening night, Illinois may have been the most impressive of all.

Game of the year: Illinois at Purdue (Jan. 24, 3 p.m. ET, FOX)