England's away-day blues - could they finally lose to Italy?

ByMatthew Hobbs

BBC Sport journalist

The Six Nations trophy catching fire after round three is a sobering analogy for where England find themselves in this year's tournament.

The title aspirations of one of the pre-tournament favourites had gone up in flames well before the end of February.

Mauled at Murrayfield. Terrorised at Twickenham. Can pride be salvaged by beating Italy in round four in Rome?

Emerging victorious from the Eternal City, though, is no longer a straightforward task - particularly for visitors who have a dire away record in the Six Nations in recent seasons.

England remain unbeaten in the Italian capital but arrive on the back of two chastening defeats.

England's current run of four defeats in five away games is their joint-highest tally of losses over a five-match period in the entirety of the Six Nations era.

In the five championships since last winning the title in 2020, England have won just four of their 13 fixtures on the road, losing all eight combined in Edinburgh, Dublin and France.

Over the same period, France and Ireland have won 11 away games. Scotland have won six.

England do have a 100% record in Rome - but the Azzurri are no longer the accommodating hosts of old.

Stamina, style, scrum power. World-class players like Tommaso Menoncello in wonderful form. Defensive resilience and aerial threat.

Italy have already beaten Scotland at home in this tournament and will be targeting a first ever win against an England side whose vulnerabilities have been exposed in the past few weeks.

England are the only team in the Six Nations who have never lost against Italy, but former England winger Ugo Monye believes that record will be tested on Saturday afternoon.

"I am not sure if I've ever considered a Test against Italy as a pivotal match for England, but it is this year," he said. "Italy are a proper, proper outfit."

England boss Steve Borthwick has made his feelings on the error-strewn performances of rounds two and three clear by making nine changes, along with three positional switches - the most by an England team in the Six Nations era.

The move is not without risk as untested combinations take to the field in a must-win match.

Were England to be beaten for the first time on Italian soil, they would travel to Paris on the final weekend facing the possibility of four defeats in the same championship for only the third time since it expanded to five teams 116 years ago, and the first since 1976.

England entered round two on a run of 12 successive wins and yet the setbacks against Ireland and Scotland were of a team suddenly unsure of their identity.

Chaotic starts. Scrambled gameplans. Individual mistakes.

The suggestion that England kick too much is synonymous with Borthwick's threeyear reign although moving away from a kick-based strategy has had adverse consequences in recent weeks.

According to Opta data, England ranked second bottom for kicks in play (44) and bottom for kick metres (1,025m) across the past two rounds and suffered convincing defeats in both.

An attack that was only outscored by South Africa last year has malfunctioned, conceding 16 turnovers at crucial times in the opposition 22, along with 32 turnovers because of unforced errors.

But perhaps the biggest failings on England's rap sheet have been those of a ragged defence.

Borthwick's men have conceded 24 line-breaks so far, with 58% of those coming in the 10m channels. An unrivalled 30% of their 74 missed tackles have also come out wide.

The secret is out - to beat England, play fast and play with width, a blueprint that Monye believes Italy are capable of replicating.

"Italy have the opportunity to threaten England, because it would seem that against teams that love to play wide England, at the moment, don't have an antidote against that," he said.

"Italy have really developed and the teams that like to express themselves and play a wide game can really get after England."

The speed of Italy's development has increased significantly since the arrival of Gonzalo Quesada as head coach following the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

Aggression in defence. Style in attack. And the ability to compete for 80 minutes.

"Historically, Italy have been good for the opening 20, the first half," said Monye, who won 13 England caps between 2008 and 2012.

"But then when changes are made and you're into that final quarter, they might die off. We now know they're a top team right across all four quarters."

The Azzurri's only real failing in this tournament so far has been an inability to fully exploit the chances they have created.

They were the only team to score fewer points per visit to the opposition's red zone (0.7) than England (1.6) in rounds two and three, resulting in competitive defeats in Dublin and Lille.

Missed opportunities against Ireland proved particularly costly in a match of fine margins, although Italy's scrum once again stood out.

After smashing Scotland's pack at the Stadio Olimpico they fractured an Irish front row boasting three-time British and Irish Lion Tadgh Furlong at Aviva Stadium.

The Azzurri have won a higher rate of scrums on the opposition feed (19%) than ever before in this championship, including two against France.

England's scrum has also been impressive. A key battle awaits.

"At times, Italy's scrum got the better of South Africa in the autumn," said Monye.

"It has to be up there as one of the best in the world."

2026 Six Nations

Saturday 7 March at 16:40 GMT

Italy, scrum and all, are likely to provide an even sterner test on Roman soil.

Quesada's home win rate of 50% across all Tests is the highest of any Italy head coach in the Six Nations era, with the victory against Scotland last month preceded by an autumn triumph over Australia.

Italy's 27-24 loss to England in their most recent meeting in Rome two years ago is their narrowest margin of defeat in all 35 years of this fixture.

The scoreline was admittedly flattering, with Italy scoring a converted Monty Ioane try with the clock in the red, although Quesada and his men will not have forgotten how that contest began.

Italy scored two early tries to lead 17-8 with 30 minutes on the clock.

After half an hour against Scotland in February, England were 17-0 down. Against Ireland at the same stage, the score was 22-0.

England simply cannot afford to make such a slow start once again on Saturday afternoon against a side boasting formidable firepower.

Menoncello has been in the kind of blistering form in midfield that saw him win the player of the tournament award two years ago, leading this championship for average gain (8.7m) and dominant carries (75%).

He will resume his world-class partnership with the returning Juan Ignacio Brex on Saturday, against an England midfield in Tommy Freeman and Seb Atkinson who have never played together before.

Only France duo Matthieu Jalibert and Thomas Ramos have made more offloads than Italy utility back Leonardo Marin (8), while number eight Lorenzo Cannone has been the competition's most ferocious defender, setting the bar for dominant tackles (10).

England fought back in the second half two years ago but Italy are now far more accomplished at defending leads, closing out the game in torrential rain to defeat Scotland four weeks ago.

It would remain a huge shock for Italy to finally topple England for the first time in 32 Test meetings, even after the loss of influential scrum-half Alex Mitchell and centre Ollie Lawrence to injury.

England scored seven tries in this fixture at Twickenham last year and have had two weeks to lick wounds and reconnect with the winning formula that brought so much success in 2025.

The loss of Mitchell and Lawrence along with the decision to drop George Ford, Henry Arundell and Freddie Steward means that England field an entirely different backline from the one that faced Ireland.

Monye says that bringing in fly-half Fin Smith, who started the 2025 win against Italy at Twickenham, for Ford was the right call and believes England will be targeting a convincing win.

"It's not just about result anymore; it's about result and performance," he added.

"Getting excited about this opportunity is the only way to approach it. Otherwise, you'll play within yourself, you'll play with fear, and you'll play without expression."