Are Arsenal really 'bottlers'? Shock Bournemouth loss hands Man City title lifeline

Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth 

Arsenal have been favourites to be crowned champions for the first time since 2003/04 with the north London club occupying top spot for the majority of the campaign. But a 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday has once again raised questions about their ability to get over the line. Arsenal hold a nine-point advantage over Manchester City, albeit Pep Guardiola’s men played two games fewer and host the Gunners at the Etihad next weekend.

While it would require an all-mighty collapse for Arsenal not to be crowned champions, anything can happen with six games to go. There’s been signs of weakness recently in the defeat to City in the League Cup final and the shock FA Cup exit to Southampton. While not very convincing, Arsenal responded with a respectable away win over Sporting CP in midweek and they should progress comfortably into the Champions League semi-finals.

Arsenal’s mentality has been questioned across recent years and they’ve faced accusations of ‘bottling it’ for falling short in title races. That theory may hold some weight, but this season, Mikel Arteta's men have been the best team in most credible metrics. Arsenal have scored the most second-half goals of any team this season with 39.

But this was far from an exemplary display of attacking excellence from the Premier League leaders. They needed to dig deep against Bournemouth after looking some way off their best in the first half and fell way short of expectations in their response. That was a surprise considering they also hold the second-best points-per-game ratio when trailing in a game.

Junior Kroupi became the first teenager since Robbie Keane in the 1999/2000 season to score 10 Premier League goals, only to further exhibit his superb debut season in England. But when a dubious penalty claim for handball went in their favour, Viktor Gyökeres slotted home from the spot for his 18th goal of the season in all competitions.

Arteta clearly wasn't happy with his frontline and opted to hook Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke after just 52 minutes. Whether that was pre-planned or not ahead of their Champions League tie with Sporting CP, it spoke volumes about how Arsenal's attackers have struggled this season.

The anxiety in the stadium only increased when David Raya and Gabriel made errors on the ball and, on another day, might've been paid the price for it. Eventually, their sloppy play was punished. Usually a compact unit at the back, Arsenal were sliced open far too easily from a slick Bournemouth move and Alex Scott finished with aplomb.

The mood went flat inside the Emirates Stadium, knowing a home defeat would bring Manchester City right back into the mix with a nine-point gap and two more games to play than the Gunners and a tasty clash at the Etihad still to come.

If there is a silver lining for Arsenal, it's that no team has ever been nine points clear after Matchday 32 in the Premier League and not gone on to win the title. Manchester United hold the unwanted record for going eight points clear in 2011/12 and losing out to their rivals City on the final day of the season.

Arsenal’s record across final seven Premier League games under Arteta

We’ve analysed Arsenal’s record across their final seven games of the league in the six seasons since Arteta was appointed in December 2019 to ascertain whether the narrative that they fall away in the closing stages is accurate. Last season, Arsenal only picked up 12 points from their final seven games but they were 11 points behind Liverpool heading into matchday 32 with the title wrapped up. Arsenal were top with seven games remaining in the 2023/24 campaign and they picked up six wins from seven, but they were pipped by Man City, who collected the maximum 21 points.

As the graphic above illustrates, Arsenal’s worst points tally across their final seven games arrived in 2022/23 when they collected just 10 points. This is the season when accusations of Arsenal ‘bottling it’ are most justified as they completely collapsed over the closing weeks of the campaign when they sat top heading into matchday 32 with City winning the league.

In Arteta’s first three seasons other campaigns, Arsenal were never involved in the title race as the Spaniard began transforming the club into what they are today - one of the best teams in the world. Arsenal’s fixture schedule is very kind this campaign and it seems unthinkable that they won’t be crowned champions, which would be richly deserved. But their third defeat in four games has opened up the possibility once again.