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Nine-point lead
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The English Premier League returns this week after a three-week hiatus for the international break and the FA Cup. There’s plenty to be decided during the business end of the season; who will be relegated? Who will claim the Champions League spots? And most notably, who will win the title? Arsenal are overwhelming favourites to be crowned champions for the first time since 2003 with the North London club occupying top spot for the majority of the campaign. Ahead of the weekend fixtures, Arsenal hold a nine-point advantage over Manchester City, albeit Pep Guardiola’s men played one game fewer and host the Gunners at the Etihad next weekend.
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It would require an all-mighty collapse for Arsenal not to be crowned champions but there’s been signs of weakness recently in the defeat to City in the League Cup final and the shock FA Cup exit to Southampton. While not very convincing, Arsenal responded with a respectable away win over Sporting CP in midweek and they should progress comfortably into the Champions League semi-finals. Arsenal’s mentality has been questioned across recent years and they’ve faced accusations of ‘bottling it’ for falling short in title races. Therefore, we’ve analysed their record across the final seven games of the Premier League season during Mikel Arteta’s tenure.
Arsenal’s record across final seven Premier League games under Arteta
We’ve analysed Arsenal’s record across their final seven games of the league in the six seasons since Arteta was appointed in December 2019 to ascertain whether the narrative that they fall away in the closing stages is accurate. Last season, Arsenal only picked up 12 points from their final seven games but they were 11 points behind Liverpool heading into matchday 32 with the title wrapped up. Arsenal were top with seven games remaining in the 2023/24 campaign and they picked up six wins from seven, but they were pipped by Man City, who collected the maximum 21 points.
As the graphic above illustrates, Arsenal’s worst points tally across their final seven games arrived in 2022/23 when they collected just 10 points. This is the season when accusations of Arsenal ‘bottling it’ are most justified as they completely collapsed over the closing weeks of the campaign when they sat top heading into matchday 32 with City winning the league. In Arteta’s first three seasons other campaigns, Arsenal were never involved in the title race as the Spaniard began transforming the club into what they are today - one of the best teams in the world. Arsenal’s fixture schedule is very kind this campaign and it seems unthinkable that they won’t be crowned champions, which would be richly deserved.
