What the Raiders can learn from last time they paired a first-time head coach with a No. 1 overall pick QB

HENDERSON, Nev. -- The Las Vegas Raiders' history of pairing a first-time NFL head coach with a rookie, No. 1 overall pick quarterback might temper expectations for the eventual partnership between Klint Kubiak and Fernando Mendoza, especially in Year 1.

Nearly 20 years ago, the Raiders hired Lane Kiffin as the coach and eventually drafted quarterback JaMarcus Russell with the No. 1 pick of the 2007 NFL draft. The combination of Kiffin, who was USC's wide receiver coach/offensive coordinator at the time of his hiring, and Russell, who was known for his electric arm at LSU, created more chaos than success.

Kiffin reportedly didn't want to draft Russell and was fired by the Raiders in September of his second season in 2008 after posting a 5-15 career record. Meanwhile, Russell lasted just 31 games and posted a QBR of 26.1 before being released in 2009.

If the Raiders indeed draft Mendoza with the first pick on April 23 (8 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC and ESPN App), it would be the second time in franchise history and 11th time in the common draft era (since 1967) that a quarterback, who was taken first overall, was paired with a first-time NFL head coach (excluding interim coaches midseason).

While the Raiders' previous experience in this particular situation wasn't too pleasant, the second time around should be met with a bit more optimism. From Mendoza's skill set perfectly matching with Kubiak's system to walking into a situation with a strong support staff, there's reason to believe the pairing of Kubiak and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner will translate to success, even if it doesn't happen right away.

"To think that you're just going to take a young quarterback anywhere and start him Week 1 and it's going to go great, is naive," Raiders general manager John Spytek said. "You're not doing that kid any favors at all.

"I think more organizations failed those kids than those kids failed the organizations. And so whoever we [have] at the quarterback spot, it takes the whole building to support them, because they have such a hard job. And we've got to be patient with young players in general."

IN THE PAST, first-time NFL head coaches and rookie quarterbacks drafted first overall have had their fair share of ups and downs in Year 1. Of the 10 pairings, only former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and coach Chuck Pagano made the postseason and posted a winning record in their first season together. Led by Luck, who was named to the Pro Bowl after throwing for 4,374 yards, 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions in 16 starts, the Colts were 11-5 and earned a trip to the wild-card round in 2012.

Overall, these duos have a combined first-season record of 31-76-1. The most recent pairing was in 2021 with former Jaguars coach Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence. After Meyer's college head coaching career that spanned from 2001 to 2018, he was hired by the Jacksonville Jaguars for his first job in the NFL. He and Lawrence led the Jaguars to a 2-11 record before Meyer was fired in December.

Lawrence finished that season 3-14 and recorded 3,641 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and a league-high 17 interceptions. He has gone on to make one Pro Bowl selection and lead Jacksonville to two playoff appearances.

In 1989, former Dallas Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman had a 0-11 record while throwing for 1,749 yards, nine touchdowns and 18 interceptions as a starter under former coach Jimmy Johnson. Aikman and Johnson went on to win two Super Bowls in five seasons together. Aikman finished his career as a three-time Super Bowl champion, the Super Bowl XXVII MVP and a six-time Pro Bowl selection.

Despite Cam Newton winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2011, he and former coach Ron Rivera guided the Panthers to a 6-10 record. Newton eventually played for Rivera for nine seasons, during which the pair led the Panthers to four playoff appearances, including a trip to Super 50 in 2015. In that same season, Newton was named NFL MVP after guiding Carolina to a 15-1 record.

The pairing of Russell and Kiffin, on the other hand, was short-lived and didn't materialize into long-term success for the Raiders. Late owner/general manager Al Davis took a major risk by hiring Kiffin, who had no prior NFL experience.

The two didn't always see eye-to-eye, especially on the decision to draft Russell. Even though Russell was the clear-cut favorite to be taken first overall after a stellar final season at LSU (3,129 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions), Kiffin preferred taking wide receiver Calvin Johnson and drafting quarterback Trent Edwards in the second round.

But Davis insisted on taking Russell, which they did.

The move didn't go smoothly by any means. Russell was not named the starter as a rookie after holding out of training camp in a contract dispute. His contract situation was resolved on Sept. 12, 2007, agreeing to a six-year deal with a maximum value of $68 million.

Josh McCown was named the starter after competing with Daunte Culpepper and Andrew Walter. McCown, who dealt with injuries and poor play, started in nine games in 2007. Culpepper appeared in seven games, making six starts.

Russell made his first appearance in the Raiders' Week 13 win against the Denver Broncos. He relieved McCown for two series, completing 4 of 7 passes for 56 yards. He made his first career start in the season finale against the Chargers. Russell went 23-of-31 for 224 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a 30-17 loss.

As a rookie, Russell played in four games (one start), totaling 373 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. The Raiders finished the season with a 4-12 record.

Russell was named the Week 1 starter in 2008. Following the Raiders' season-opening loss to the Broncos, during which Russell completed 17 of 26 passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns, Davis wrote Kiffin a letter saying that he would fire him if he didn't step in line and called Russell a "great player."

"I do realize that you did not want us to draft JaMarcus Russell," Davis wrote to Kiffin on Sept. 12, 2008. "Get over it and coach this team on the field; that is what you were hired to do. We can win with this team!"

Kiffin was fired on Sept. 30, 2008, after four games and a 1-3 record at the bye week. In a news conference after the decision, Davis explained how he was hurt for picking the wrong coach.

Russell finished his sophomore campaign by throwing for 2,438 yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 15 starts.

Playing under former Raiders coach Tom Cable in 2009, Russell struggled mightily. He started in nine of 12 games played, throwing for 1,287 yards, three touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He was benched after the Week 10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, during which he completed 8 of 23 passes for 64 yards.

He made an appearance in three of the Raiders' final four games of the season. Russell was released on May 10, 2010, cementing his legacy as one of the biggest draft busts in league history.

AT THIS POINT, it is a foregone conclusion that Mendoza will be rocking the Silver & Black this fall.

Mendoza has a 99% chance of going No. 1 overall to the Raiders, according to ESPN's Draft Day Predictor. It would be the 30th time in the common draft era that a quarterback has been selected with the top draft choice.

The Raiders have done their due diligence on Mendoza. They had a large contingent, which featured Spytek and Kubiak, at Indiana's pro day last week and met with Mendoza afterward. Mendoza visited Las Vegas on Tuesday which was also the first day of the team's offseason workout program.

They spoke with him at the combine and virtually.

"I love always watching good football players," Spytek said. "And when you get a quarterback that can lead his team to a national championship and go 16-0, and do the things he did, you know, it's always fun [to watch]."

Spytek attended the Peach Bowl in January when Mendoza threw five touchdowns in Indiana's 56-22 win against Oregon.

Spytek, minority owner Tom Brady and owner Mark Davis were gathered at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami to watch Mendoza lead the Hoosiers to a national championship victory over Miami.

Davis even said in February that part of the reason the Raiders hired Kubiak to be the 25th head coach in franchise history was because of the likelihood of drafting an offensive player in the first round.

"It came down to where we are this year, having the first pick in the draft and understanding there's a good chance we'll go on the offensive side of the ball," Davis said. "So it might be a good chance that we would want a young offensive mind that could grow with somebody, [which] is what started, in my mind, the direction we wanted to go."

The Raiders being aligned on what they want to do with the first pick is one factor in believing Mendoza is walking into a good situation. Kubiak's experience with Derek Carr, Brock Purdy, and, most recently, winning a Super Bowl with Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks should create hope.

On top of that, Kubiak's staff is filled with coaches who have worked with him before and have a strong idea of the type of offense he wants to run, as well as the expectations he has for a quarterback in his system. Assistant head coach Mike McCoy has coached quarterbacks like Philip Rivers, Lawrence and Peyton Manning. And offensive coordinator Andrew Janocko has been a quarterbacks coach under Kubiak during their stints with the Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints and Seahawks.

"Andrew is a really phenomenal teacher," Kubiak said. "He knows how to keep it simple for the guys, and he works his tail off to make sure he's prepared to lead those meetings every day. I couldn't ask for a better quarterback coach [or] offensive coordinator than Andrew."

Kubiak said timing, decision-making and accuracy are the most important traits in a quarterback, and Mendoza was efficient in all of them, especially with the Hoosiers in 2025.

Mendoza completed 72% of his pass attempts in 16 starts for Indiana. He had six games where he completed at least 85% of his passes. He threw six interceptions in each of his past two seasons in college. And during the College Football Playoff, he had eight touchdowns and no interceptions in three games.

At the same time, Kubiak's offense requires a quarterback to be under center quite a bit. Darnold was under center for 33.6% of his dropbacks compared to 63.4% in shotgun last season. Mendoza has operated solely in the shotgun throughout his college career, only being under center for five dropbacks.

Of course, Mendoza will have a learning curve. But it's something the Raiders would be prepared to handle.

"It's very much a shotgun game in college," Spytek said. "... It's different now. It's not anything that you can't work through. It's just you have to acknowledge that we're going to have to spend time with any of these young QBs, teaching them the center-quarterback exchange."

There's pressure that comes with being the first overall pick. But the Raiders' patience should lessen the burden. Spytek said he's trying to build the organization the right way and not rush their way to the top. The same goes for the quarterback position. Spytek and Kubiak have said they prefer not to start a rookie quarterback right away, allowing him to learn behind a veteran. While the free agent signing of center Tyler Linderbaum is vital for Mendoza's growth, the addition of 37-year-old quarterback Kirk Cousins is an added blessing.

The Raiders signed Cousins after his release from the Atlanta Falcons to a deal that will pay the four-time Pro Bowler $20 million in guaranteed money in 2026. Given Cousins' experience and familiarity with Kubiak's scheme, having played for him for three seasons in Minnesota, he is a solid veteran for Mendoza to play behind if that's the route the Raiders indeed choose.

"You'd rather him learn before he gets in the game," Kubiak said. "At the end of the day, you want to make sure that you're bringing in an individual, drafting a guy that is mature enough to handle some adversity, whether it's him starting the first game or him starting the first game in Year 2."