Sizing up BYU-Texas Tech, A&M-Mizzou, Oregon-Iowa and 25 other key showdowns

The stakes are officially set. We know what the College Football Playoff committee thinks of all the requisite contenders -- we know that Oregon could be in trouble with another loss, that Notre Dame is in excellent shape and that the ACC probably is getting only one team in (which is all it deserves). Now it's time to see how this all plays out.

Week 11 should be a delight. We get a battle of top-10s in Lubbock and a bigger-than-expected upset attempt in Iowa City. The SEC's top two teams, though safe in the playoff race, face unique tests. The ACC and American Conference races might gain some clarity, and they might grow even sloppier.

What shifts will we see and where? Here's everything you need to follow in a rather off-the-beaten-path Week 11.

The biggest game in Lubbock in 17 years

No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (noon, ABC)

For just the fifth time in history, a top-10 Texas Tech team will host a top-10 opponent on Saturday. The Red Raiders lost two such games back in the 1970s, but they won a pair in 2008. You probably remember at least one of them.

That's the last time "College GameDay" was in town. It'll be there Saturday. Hell yeah.

In this moment, with the Big Ten and SEC attempting to further distance themselves from the rest of the sport in terms of both money and power, BYU and Texas Tech in particular are trying to disrupt the party a bit. BYU was testing the boundaries of NIL possibilities right after NIL became a thing and is milking a large and monied fan base to solid effect in both football and basketball. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has the most famous NIL billionaire in the game running television commercials and openly questioning the judgment of the sport's most powerful individuals.

Oh yeah, and both teams are awesome this season. Despite starting a true freshman quarterback, BYU is playing the most mature ball in the Big 12. The Cougars don't always start games well, but they finish them strong, especially on the road -- they ended on a 31-3 run against Iowa State and 24-7 against Colorado, and they scored late and then won in overtime at Arizona. They know that 60 minutes is a long time, they're brilliant in the turnover, third-down and red zone departments on defense, and the offense gets both efficiency from the running game and big plays from receivers Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston. And Bear Bachmeier, the aforementioned freshman QB, is up to 18th in Total QBR, ahead of former BYU starter Jake Retzlaff (now at Tulane), among others. Since a Week 2 semi-dud against Stanford, he ranks 11th.

I wouldn't advise leaving things 'til late against Texas Tech, however, as the Red Raiders might have put the game away by then. Their eight wins have come by an average of 34 points, and their only loss, a last-second defeat at Arizona State, came without quarterback Behren Morton, who is listed as probable for Saturday.

This is a fascinating test for Bachmeier. Inexperience can strike when it's least desirable, and if it's going to hit Bachmeier, it will probably be in Lubbock, facing a unique and hostile crowd and a unique and hostile defense. The Red Raiders have forced 20 turnovers (second nationally) and three-and-outs on 44% of possessions (fifth). David Bailey and Romello Height have combined for 17.5 sacks, and Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the country. They rank in the top 20 in sack rate while rarely blitzing.

Bachmeier's supporting cast is strong, with an experienced line, Roberts and Kingston out wide and running back LJ Martin next to him in the backfield. Some freshmen might get on the field because of certain elite traits, but they're usually forced to learn how to overcome obvious weaknesses. For Bachmeier, his elite trait is his lack of obvious weaknesses.

Bachmeier's accuracy is perhaps merely average -- as represented by CPOE (completion rate over expected) in the chart above -- but his well-roundedness is startling for a first-year guy. Against an elite Utah defense, he was able to grind out success, averaging only 6.6 yards per dropback but throwing no picks and rushing nine times for 71 yards and a rugged, game-clinching 22-yard touchdown on third-and-11. But here comes an even bigger test. Meanwhile, the BYU defense will have to cope with a balanced and explosive offense featuring two high-end running backs (Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams) and a diverse receiving corps with five players between 21 and 41 receptions.

The winner of this one will head into the season's homestretch with quite a bit of margin for error in the CFP hunt; the loser, however, will be right on the border. At 16th in SP+, BYU has what appears to be its best team since the glorious 2020 team that went 11-1 and ranked fourth. But this might be Tech's best team ever. Four Red Raiders teams have finished in the SP+ top 10 -- 1954, 2005, 2008 and 2009 (here's your regular reminder that Mike Leach was a fantastic head coach) -- but not one finished higher than eighth. Tech is currently fourth, and that's with the ASU game dragging it down. The upside is immense, and Saturday, Lubbock will be the center of the college football universe.

Current line: Tech -10.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.7 | FPI projection: Tech by 2.7

A sloppy track in Iowa City

No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)

The current weather forecast for Iowa City on Saturday afternoon is sloppy: Temperature in the low-to-mid-40s, 90% chance of rain. That's some serious Iowa November weather, though come to think of it, it's pretty Oregon, too, isn't it?

Tuesday's CFP rankings revealed some vulnerability for Dan Lanning's Ducks. They're awesome on paper (third in both SP+ and FPI), but they've played only two SP+ top-50 teams and lost to their only top-tier opponent (Indiana). One of the things that makes me uneasy about the way we discuss strength of schedule is that we seemingly treat it as a choice -- Oregon chose to play a weak schedule, therefore the Ducks don't deserve to rank as high even though they're clearly very good. It's not their fault preseason No. 2 Penn State face-planted after losing to the Ducks, just as it's not their fault that Oklahoma State, a nonconference opponent scheduled years ago when the Cowboys were consistently excellent, has become one of the worst power conference teams in recent history.

Regardless, Oregon is where it is, and the Ducks have a tricky homestretch, with ranked Iowa, USC and Washington teams to come. Iowa has been underrated all season -- the Hawkeyes are still somehow unranked in the AP poll despite suffering losses only in an early-season rivalry game against Iowa State (when ISU was soaring) and by five points to an Indiana team that has beaten everyone else by double digits. They're 17th in SP+, sixth on defense, and their offense is good at all the things that Iowa always wants to be good at but very much wasn't between 2021 and 2023: rushing (11th in rushing success rate*), penalty avoidance (fewest penalty yards), turnover avoidance (fifth-fewest turnovers) and short yardage (second in third-and-short success rate).

(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is generating 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)

They're as reliant as ever on the run, but how they run is wonderfully unpredictable.

Here's how to interpret that chart: Bigger dots mean higher frequency, and lighter dots mean higher efficiency. The dots are pretty much the same size, and the efficiency levels are solid across the board.

Now, once the Hawkeyes are behind schedule, they're toast. But they're averaging 2.56 points per drive; their best average in the past 20 years was 2.36 in 2008. That's been more than enough for the typically awesome Iowa defense to take control. Ends Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett are spicy pass rushers, and the secondary gets the requisite ball-hawking from corners TJ Hall and Deshaun Lee and slot corner Zach Lutmer.

Of course, Oregon hasn't shown us many weaknesses beyond an inability to beat a thus-far unbeatable Indiana team. Quarterback Dante Moore and the offense struggled against Indiana's elite defense but have otherwise averaged 44.3 points and 7.8 yards per play. Edge rusher Teitum Tuioti and the Oregon defense struggled against Indiana's elite offense but have otherwise allowed just 11.1 points and 3.9 yards per play.

We haven't gotten a nice, big upset at Kinnick Stadium in a little while. Iowa hasn't hosted a top-10 team since 2022 (Michigan) and hasn't beaten one at home since 2021 (Penn State). Oregon is awesome, but this should be quite the challenge. And in challenging conditions, no less.

Current line: Oregon -6.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 7.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 5.1.

Will a top SEC team go down?

The SEC's race isn't as messy as the ACC's or American's, but we still have five teams pretty heavily involved: Per SP+, Alabama has a 33.2% title chance, followed by Texas A&M (30.1%), Georgia (16.1%), Ole Miss (11.3%) and Texas (7.8%).

The two front-runners are in excellent shape playoff-wise, but they have work to do this weekend. A&M visits Missouri -- a team that had its own realistic CFP ambitions before losing quarterback Beau Pribula to injury two weeks ago -- while Bama is a single-digit favorite against suddenly mysterious LSU.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Coaches and old-school commentators love telling you how important it is for an offense to stay on schedule. But unlike old-school views on things like fourth-down attempts or the dangers of passing, this is correct. Efficiency is vital in college football; it's one of the reasons success rate is one of the key pieces of my SP+ ratings.

Staying on schedule might be just about all that matters in Columbia on Saturday. If we break things into standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less) and passing downs (everything else), we see why pretty quickly.

When A&M has the ball

Standard downs success rate: A&M offense first (58.2%), Mizzou defense fifth (37.7%)

Passing downs success rate: A&M offense 88th (27.5%); Mizzou defense sixth (21.5%)

A&M is elite on standard downs. The Aggies' running game is quite efficient, and quarterback Marcel Reed averages 9.7 yards per dropback on standard downs, completing 69% of his passes at 14.4 yards per completion and scrambling for nearly 10 yards a pop too.

Reed averages only 6.4 yards per dropback on passing downs, however, while his interception rate nearly doubles and his sack rate triples. Mizzou's defense is sixth nationally in success rate allowed, and the Tigers generate pressure on 44% of dropbacks. Reed is elusive, but if Mizzou leverages the Aggies behind schedule, they'll make a lot of stops.

That's good, because they'll be giving a true freshman quarterback (Matt Zollers) his first career start against an aggressive A&M defense.

When Mizzou has the ball

Standard downs success rate: Mizzou offense 28th (51.9%), A&M defense 28th (43.2%)

Passing downs success rate: Mizzou offense 15th (37.7%), A&M defense ninth (22.1%)

A&M's defense is vicious on passing downs. Led primarily by Missouri native Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes, the Aggies rank second in sack rate. Nothing can rattle a freshman QB faster than constant pressure, so Mizzou has to hope that the combination of backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts in the running game and a quick passing game -- albeit one that might be without tight end Brett Norfleet (listed as questionable) -- can keep Zollers in favorable situations. He was a top-100 prospect, and he threw the ball pretty well filling in against Vanderbilt, but his passing has been mostly short and controlled.

That's a tight radius of completions. At one point or another, Zollers will be asked to make tough throws to the sideline; if he can't, A&M will crowd the box and make life awfully difficult.

Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 1.2 | FPI projection: A&M by 1.4

LSU at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)

In 2022, future Heisman winner Jayden Daniels outdueled former Heisman winner Bryce Young, and LSU knocked off No. 6 Alabama in overtime. With that result, the Tigers won the SEC West in Brian Kelly's first season in charge and reignited one of the defining rivalries of the 2010s.

Three years later, Kelly has been fired. He lost his last two Bama games by a combined 43 points, and he lost six of his last 14 games overall. His teams were never bad or even mediocre -- unlike another Nick Saban-beating head coach who was recently fired (Auburn's Hugh Freeze) -- but he set the highest possible bar for himself and didn't clear it. Interim coach Frank Wilson and the Tigers now are left looking to spoil a season or two down the stretch.

They're still talented enough to do it. The LSU defense, fatigued from carrying a disappointing offense and suffering in the absence of star linebacker Whit Weeks, collapsed in Kelly's final two games. But it's still talented, and Weeks has been upgraded to questionable. The offense, now coordinated by former Florida State OC Alex Atkins, could benefit from the element of surprise, not to mention a week of rest for consistently battered quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. If the Tigers land some early haymakers, this could get weird.

Of course, at this point Bama is used to facing stiff challenges. They've defeated four ranked opponents, and they're 3-0 in one-score finishes. Quarterback Ty Simpson remains a major Heisman contender, injured receiver Ryan Williams is listed as probable, and the Tide probably will be ready for a fight.

Current line: Bama -9.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 8.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.9

ACC contenders try to avoid potholes

After last week's ACC chaos, SP+ currently gives six teams a fighting chance at the conference crown: Louisville (28.0%), Virginia (25.6%), Georgia Tech (16.7%), Duke (11.3%), Pitt (8.4%) and SMU (8.0%). Even Miami is still at 2.0%.

This week doesn't give us any head-to-head matchups between these contenders, but while Duke is off gallivanting with UConn in nonconference play, Pitt is on bye and Miami and Louisville are significant favorites, two contenders face semi-interesting tests.

Wake Forest at No. 14 Virginia (7 p.m., ESPN)

Wake Forest had won three straight games before last week, but the Demon Deacons visited Florida State, absorbed all of the Seminoles' bad mojo and laid a spectacular egg in a 42-7 loss. Every play seemed to feature miscommunication or a massive individual error.

Any remaining game in which that version of Wake shows up is an automatic loss, but the pre-FSU version could threaten a Virginia team that has flirted with disaster for weeks. The Cavaliers are 8-1 and the vice-favorite in the ACC, but they've won their past five games by an average of 4.8 points, three in overtime. They're just 43rd in SP+.

Wake's all-or-nothing offense has been mostly nothing of late, scoring 20 combined points in two games, but UVA's secondary is vulnerable to "alls," and receiver Chris Barnes is a solid downfield threat. You're watching this for the other matchup, though. UVA's offense and Wake's defense are fun and explosive. The Hoos' offensive line could struggle with an active Wake front -- the Deacs are seventh in stuff rate and third in pressure rate -- but backs J'Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee are excellent after contact, and quarterback Chandler Morris is one of the best in the nation at escaping pressure and getting rid of the ball. UVA is only 53rd in success rate but bumps up to 16th on third downs. Morris has been a godsend, and he and the Hoos tend to come through late.

Current line: UVA -6.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 9.9 | FPI projection: UVA by 8.6

SMU at Boston College (noon, ACCN)

SMU just worked its way back into the ACC race with its upset of Miami; surely the Mustangs wouldn't turn around and blow it against 1-8 Boston College, right? Probably not. But it's worth noting that BC has overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 12 points in back-to-back games, giving both Louisville and Notre Dame more resistance than expected. This is a long trip and an early kick, and if SMU doesn't bring a certain level of energy, things could get awkward.

SMU's offense has struggled at times, but the defense has surged despite a growing injury list. BC's Bill O'Brien has lost faith in quarterback Dylan Lonergan, and though backup Grayson James usually offers more with his legs, he's even less efficient passing, and he has been battling a hip pointer.

This is a just-in-case watch: BC could make it interesting, but it's not incredibly likely.

Current line: SMU -11.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 11.0

The Group of 5 game of the week

Tulane at Memphis (Friday, 9 p.m., ESPN)

While one-loss James Madison and San Diego State lurk, the American Conference champ will be very well positioned to snag the Group of 5's guaranteed CFP slot. There are currently six American teams with one conference loss; Memphis is one of them, as are each of the Tigers' last three opponents -- Tulane, East Carolina and Navy. This is a tricky homestretch, especially with quarterback Brendon Lewis' status uncertain after he suffered another lower-body injury against Rice. Backup AJ Hill was good late against UAB after Lewis exited, but this isn't a great time to deal with QB uncertainty. Without accounting for Lewis, SP+ still gives the Tigers only a 32% chance of winning these next three games.

But Tulane's recent form has to give the Tigers hope. After close calls a couple of times, the Green Wave finally found it with last week's blowout loss at UTSA. After being as high as 38th in SP+, they've fallen to 66th, and while Jake Retzlaff and the passing game remain strong, the run game is inconsistent and the defense was lit up for 48 points and 7.6 yards per play in San Antonio.

Retzlaff should be able to find some success, but Tulane's poor defense will have to make stops at some point, and Memphis' skill corps is deep and diverse, with Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. in the backfield and big-play receivers Cortez Braham Jr. and Jamari Hawkins out wide.

Current line: Memphis -3.5 (down from -6.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Memphis by 13.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.2

Week 11 chaos superfecta

We're once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And thanks to NC State's win over Georgia Tech, we jumped back up to .500 (5-5) last week.

In the immortal words of Lou Brown in "Major League," if we win today, it's called two in a row. If we win again tomorrow, it's called a winning streak. SP+ says there's only a 42% chance that Virginia (73% win probability against Wake Forest), James Madison (80% against Marshall), SMU (84% against Boston College) and USC (86% against Northwestern) all win. Let's take down a playoff (or at least ACC title) contender.

Week 11 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Northwestern at No. 19 USC (9 p.m., Fox). USC's playoff hopes might have remained alive because of an injury; the Trojans were trailing Nebraska 14-6 when Dylan Raiola went down and they rallied to a 21-17 win. Now they host a Northwestern team that lost to Raiola's Huskers by seven the week before. Northwestern games feature no big plays for either team, and the Wildcats are built to muck this one up for a bit.

Current line: USC -14.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 17.5 | FPI projection: USC by 17.5

Early Saturday

No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State (noon, ESPN). Mississippi State finally ended a two-year SEC losing streak and has been playing competitive ball with no elite traits but few grave weaknesses. Since this is a Georgia game, though, we can probably just stop the analysis there and assume that the Bulldogs trail late and win anyway. It's a thing they like to do.

Current line: UGA -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: UGA by 7.1 | FPI projection: UGA by 8.7

No. 2 Indiana at Penn State (noon, Fox). Penn State became only the second team to hit 14 points against Ohio State last week, but the Nittany Lions' defense succumbed to the Buckeyes' big plays. Now comes another top-two opponent; outside of two SP+ top-20 opponents, Indiana has beaten mortals by an average of 53-9, and PSU looks awfully mortal. Will it matter that IU's injury list is growing?

Current line: Indiana -14.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 12.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 10.9

No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue (noon, BTN). Purdue has massively improved this season, but thanks to three recent one-score losses, the Boilermakers have lost seven in a row and are going to be significant underdogs in each of their last three games. Ohio State actually had to get a little aggressive against Penn State but looked great doing so. That probably says bad things about this matchup.

Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 (up from -28.5) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 29.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 29.1

James Madison at Marshall (noon, ESPN2). JMU has shifted into fifth gear of late, scoring 115 points and gaining 1,135 yards in its past two games to charge up the CFP contenders list. But the Dukes' defense has grown a bit leaky, and Marshall has averaged 41 points over its past six games. Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and the Herd are capable of throwing JMU's playoff hopes for a loop.

Current line: JMU -13.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 13.4 | FPI projection: JMU by 8.6

Southern Miss at Arkansas State (noon, ESPNU). Remember last year, when Charles Huff won the Sun Belt title with Marshall, then took the Southern Miss job and took a quarter of his roster with him? Well, his Golden Thundering Herd Eagles have won four games in a row to move to 6-2. ASU has also won four in a row, and the winner of this one will be a huge favorite to win the Sun Belt West.

Current line: USM -4.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 6.5 | FPI projection: USM by 2.8

Saturday afternoon

Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt (4 p.m., SECN). LSU isn't the only SEC team hoping for an interim boost, as DJ Durkin takes over at Auburn. The Tigers still defend beautifully -- 11th in defensive SP+ -- but Vandy is averaging 23.3 points against top-15 defenses. Can Auburn score that much against any defense with a pulse at this point?

Current line: Vandy -6.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 8.7 | FPI projection: Vandy by 5.7

Iowa State at TCU (3:30 p.m., Fox). Iowa State has lost four straight, but three were by one score and the other was tied in the fourth quarter. TCU has won two straight to get to 6-2, but both were also by one score. The records don't tell the whole tale here, but TCU's run defense will probably render ISU inefficient, and quarterback Josh Hoover should find success against a tattered Cyclones secondary.

Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 4.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.3

Kansas at Arizona (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Both of these teams rebounded from 1-3 stretches with comfortable wins last week, and both are a win from bowl eligibility after missing out last season. This one should be decided when KU's Jalon Daniels drops back to pass: He remains efficient, but Arizona ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per dropback. Fun matchup there.

Current line: Arizona -5.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 8.2 | FPI projection: Arizona by 3.5

No. 23 Washington at Wisconsin (4:30 p.m., BTN). Wisconsin plays its sixth game against an SP+ top-25 team, with two more to come. Washington puts up huge points against any less-than-elite defense, and Wisconsin isn't elite at a damn thing. The Huskies are 6-2 and have a good chance to be 9-2 with win-and-you're-in playoff hopes when Oregon visits for Rivalry Week.

Current line: Huskies -10.5 | SP+ projection: Huskies by 18.4 | FPI projection: Huskies by 6.2

Stanford at North Carolina (4:30 p.m., The CW). UNC is overachieving against SP+ projections by two touchdowns per game over the past three. The key to the Heels' turnaround? A defense that has turned good against the run and fantastic against the pass. Pass rusher Melkart Abou Jaoude is smoking hot and will probably get to know Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson awfully well.

Current line: UNC -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 9.5 | FPI projection: UNC by 3.0

Duke at UConn (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). UConn has played ACC teams as if it were auditioning for a spot in the league, walloping BC and going to overtime with pre-collapse Syracuse. The Huskies make a ton of big plays, and Duke gives up just as many, so for the Blue Devils to avoid a nonconference upset they'll have to take full advantage of a shaky UConn run front and a soft pass defense.

Current line: Duke -9.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 0.8 | FPI projection: Duke by 6.1

Syracuse at No. 18 Miami (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Miami has underachieved its offensive projections by 6.2 points per game over its past five; a total lack of big plays has removed the possibility of easy points, and Carson Beck's interception-prone tendencies (six in his past three games) have become a problem. Will any of this matter Saturday? Nope. Syracuse's offense is 12 steps beyond terrible at this point.

Current line: Miami -28.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 27.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.8

Saturday evening

Florida State at Clemson (7 p.m., ACCN). Under Mike Norvell, FSU has struggled to course-correct when the vibes go south, but beating a solid Wake team by 35 might have offered quite the correction. Will there be a correction for Clemson this season? The odds of the 3-5 Tigers reaching even 6-6 this season are down to 39%, per SP+, and that number would plummet with a fifth home loss. Fifth!

Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 0.8

California at No. 15 Louisville (7 p.m., ESPN2). Cal has done a nice job of taking advantage of a weak schedule, but the Golden Bears have lost to three SP+ top-50 opponents by an average of 37-14, and at 23rd in SP+, Louisville is by far the best team they've faced. That probably doesn't bode well, though with star back Isaac Brown injured, the Cardinals might not take full advantage of Cal's dreadful run defense.

Current line: Louisville -20.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 20.1 | FPI projection: Louisville by 18.6

Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame has won its past six games by an average score of 39-15. The Irish meet an equally torrid Pitt next week, but first they must handle an all-or-nothing Navy team that moves the ball as well as ever but ranks 103rd in points allowed per drive. You can run into trouble against the Midshipmen, but it's hard to shake the memory of last year's 51-14 blowout.

Current line: Irish -25.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 17.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.2

Late Saturday

Nebraska at UCLA (9 p.m., Fox). I've almost never seen a disagreement between spread and SP+ projection as big as the one below. Dylan Raiola's season-ending injury is the reason for the variance, but exactly how many points is a starting quarterback worth? Freshman backup TJ Lateef was a deer in headlights filling in against USC, but if he's merely composed, Nebraska's defense is good enough to make this a dogfight.

Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 13.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 4.7

San Diego State at Hawai'i (11 p.m., MW App). SDSU keeps creeping along as a playoff sleeper, having won six straight games by an average of 29-7. The Aztecs are second nationally in both points allowed per drive and yards allowed per play, but when Micah Alejado is dealing, Hawaii is a handful. When Alejado throws for 300-plus, the Rainbow Warriors score 30-plus.

Current line: SDSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 10.9 | FPI projection: SDSU by 3.4

Smaller-school showcase

Let's once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 15 North Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). We have a pair of big in-state rivalry games in the Missouri Valley this week. Reeling South Dakota State desperately needs a win at No. 25 South Dakota, but one state up, North Dakota is looking for just its second Nickel Trophy win over NDSU in 20 years. (Granted, the rivals have played only six times in that span.) An upset would supercharge the Fighting Hawks' playoff résumé, but we'll see if any FCS team is capable of beating an absurdly dominant North Dakota State team that has let only one opponent stay within 17 points.

SP+ projection: NDSU by 12.5

Division III: No. 10 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 8 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., WIAC Network). First, the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference had a six-way tie at 2-1. Then four 3-1 teams paired off last week. And now, last week's winners, both 4-1, pair off again. It has been a logistically perfect WIAC race, and now we get an upstart -- UWRF, which hasn't won an outright conference title in 40 years and destroyed longtime heavyweight Wisconsin-Whitewater last week -- hosting the 2023 WIAC champ with two games to play.

SP+ projection: UWRF by 6.0

FCS: No. 14 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 18 Lamar (4 p.m., ESPN+). Consider me surprised that Southeastern Louisiana is only 14th in the FCS polls. Dual quarterbacks Carson Camp (better passer) and Kyle Lowe (better runner) and the Lions have lost only to Louisiana Tech and LSU and have beaten seven FCS opponents by an average of 47-12. Lamar is 7-2 itself and does something rare in the Southland: defend. But SLU is the favorite for a reason.

SP+ projection: SLU by 9.0