Champions League overreactions: Arsenal are England's best hope

One of the lessons we learned in last season's Champions League league phase was that there's little sense in playing for draws. Twenty-six teams won at least three of their eight matches, and 24 advanced. Feyenoord lost by scores of 4-0 and 6-1, but advanced with three wins. Club Brugge lost by scores of 3-0, 3-1 and 3-1 and advanced. Hell, three wins for Dinamo Zagreb damn near overcame a 9-2 first-matchday loss to Bayern Munich.

If Matchday 1 of this year's competition is any indication, teams figured this out, too, because teams were going for it. Sixteen of 18 matches featured at least two goals, and 11 featured at least four. We saw 18 goals after the 80th minute, and it only felt like all those were in the epic 4-4 between Juventus and Borussia Dortmund.

We know that one matchday won't teach us everything we need to know about a given competition; in last year's Champions League, after all, eventual champion Paris Saint-Germain barely salvaged a meek 1-0 win over a bad Girona team, and eventual semifinalist Barcelona lost to Monaco. Reserved reactions are smart, but they're also no fun whatsoever. So as we do at the start of the club season, we're going to take the regulator off a bit and overreact.

Here are five things I'm far more confident in than I was when matches began on Tuesday.

- Champions League talking points: Is Rashford back to his best? Who shone?
- Women's Champions League: Arsenal draw Lyonnes, Chelsea get Barça
- First-month grades for all 20 Premier League teams: From an A+ to F

Arsenal will win the Champions League

The only surprise about Arsenal's 2-0 win at Athletic Club on Tuesday was that they didn't score from a set piece. Otherwise, it was just about as Arsenal as an Arsenal match could be in that a) very little happened over a long period of time and b) Arsenal won. They have long been happy to default to "war of attrition" mode (total goals in their first four Champions League league phase matches last season: 4), and following a summer of ambitious spending -- eight new acquisitions, nearly €300 million in transfer fees -- they now have the depth to really lean on opponents.

That depth earned them three points in Bilbao. Through 70 minutes, the two teams had combined for just 0.9 xG from 17 shots. But in the 72nd minute, substitute Gabriel Martinelli scored on a breakaway assisted by substitute Leandro Trossard, and then Trossard put the match away with a goal (assisted by Martinelli) at the end of another vertical attack in the 87th minute.

Gabriel Martinelli scores 36 seconds after coming on for Arsenal ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/cuuAcT7sJA

Arsenal's subs were difference-makers while in a combined 82 minutes, Athletic's five subs combined for two shots (combined xG: 0.05) and no chances created. In fact, after a decent run of attacking to start the second half, Athletic managed only those two shot attempts in the final 33 minutes.

Arsenal already have the best defensive setup in Europe at a time when many top clubs, including Premier League rivals Liverpool and Manchester City, are struggling at times with transition defense and tactical balance. Now coach Mikel Arteta knows he can eventually find attacking answers, too, even if he has to wait for opponents to wear down first. That means he has even less reason to take major tactical risks. Athletic had kept wingers Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke mostly quiet on the night, and they'd gotten away with allowing a couple of decent opportunities to Viktor Gyökeres. But even without injured stars Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard and Kai Havertz, Arsenal still landed a knockout blow.

You can make an easy case that the Gunners overpaid for both Eze and Gyökeres -- both are 27 years old, neither are heavily involved in link-up play or intricate passing sequences, and both could become albatrosses by the end of their respective contracts. But Arsenal can afford them, they're clearly in win-now mode, and it's hard not to like their chances of making a run even deeper than last year's semifinal trip. (I said something similar about their chances in their other primary competition recently.)

Arsenal threw body blows, bided their time and then put the match away. Thrilling? No. Effective in a way that could remain effective through May? Yes.

No other Premier League team will make a major run

Arsenal obviously weren't the only English club to spend absurd amounts to build roster war chests this summer. In fact, among the Premier League's Champions League teams alone, their outlay of transfer fees (€293.5 million) was dwarfed by that of Liverpool (€484.7 million) and Chelsea (€339.2 million) and nearly matched by Newcastle's (€278.9 million). The league threw its financial weight around in an almost unprecedented way.

However, spending power has not bought loads of Champions League runs in recent seasons. After producing all-Premier League finals in 2019 and 2021, the league has averaged only one semifinalist per year since. And aside from Arsenal, the other English teams in this competition are in odd places at the moment.

Liverpool is less a team and more a collection of adrenaline junkies at the moment. They've already blown five leads in six matches, including three two-goal leads. Now, they've still won five of those six, including all four Premier League matches and Tuesday's raucous affair against Atlético Madrid. They've scored five game-winners after the 82nd minute, too, three in stoppage time. This is an absolute thrill-ride, and with their suddenly epic spending, they're almost developing a Real Madrid-like inevitability. But Real Madrid's most clutch squads weren't blowing leads at this rate, and relying on late heroics is a good way to eventually fall in a knockout competition.

That said, from a stats perspective, their match against Atletico was probably their best of the season. They attempted 20 shots to Atleti's 10 despite leading most of the way, and their plus-2.1 xG advantage was far greater than in early Premier League wins over Bournemouth, Newcastle and Arsenal (combined: plus-0.3). Yes, it was another blown lead, but it required a couple of miraculous Marcos Llorente goals -- the kind he particularly enjoys delivering at Anfield (and Anfield only) -- and it was otherwise a one-sided affair. Maybe that's a good sign.

Manchester City also handled its business just fine this week, eventually easing to a 2-0 win over 10-man Napoli. Napoli were enjoying their only particularly threatening spell at the time of Giovanni Di Lorenzo's red card in the 21st minute, and it was one-way traffic from there. It looked for a while that Napoli might be able to will themselves to a 0-0 draw, but Erling Haaland put an end to that in the 56th minute.

Napoli finished with one shot attempt and 26% possession, but that one shot was a close-range effort on a set piece and required a pretty good save from Gianluigi Donnarumma. It was worth 0.17, which just about mirrored the average xG per shot City are allowing in Premier League play. Going back to the 4-3 Club World Cup loss against Al-Hilal, there's a level of defensive fragility here that makes it hard to trust this team just yet.

Tottenham Hotspur also won their opener, but they did the bare minimum against Villarreal, scoring on a dreadful error from keeper Luiz Júnior in the fourth minute and closing up shop. They attempted just nine shots (0.5 xG) and allowed 10 (0.5). They got the job done, but did nothing to assuage my concerns about their ability to create quality shots -- they're currently 17th in the Premier League in xG per shot -- and I'm guessing this is a round-of-16 or quarterfinal team this year.

On paper, Chelsea certainly have the pieces to make a run, but their dramatic Champions League inexperience was laid bare in Munich on Wednesday. Against a sharp Bayern Munich, they were outshot and outrun, 3-1. Cole Palmer scored on a counterattack and had a second goal disallowed, but Chelsea ceded control to their hosts in a way that a genuine contender rarely does. They looked like an inexperienced underdog. Not a great start.

Newcastle United probably deserved a better outcome on Thursday against Barcelona; they generated more xG in 10 shots (1.4) than Barça did in 19 (1.3), but they were bested by Barça's high defensive line, possession-hungry play and two goals -- one good, one unbelievable -- from Marcus Rashford.

The concerns I have for Newcastle in the Premier League -- depth and scoring capabilities, basically -- certainly apply in the Champions League, and their chances of securing a top-eight finish in the league phase took a hit here.

A Belgian team is making the quarterfinals

Don't ask me which one, though, because two have a shot.

Since a Super Cup loss to Club Brugge, Belgian champion Union St.-Gilloise -- one of the most enjoyable teams to follow in recent years as they leapt from the second division to immediate top-division contention and landed exciting young player after exciting young player -- has laid down a path of destruction. They've outscored seven Belgian opponents by a combined 15-3 margin this season, and in their first-ever Champions League match on Tuesday, they traded haymakers with PSV for most of an hour, then shut things down and won easily, 3-1.

PSV finally scored in the 90th minute, and they perhaps deserved more after creating shots worth 2.2 xG, but USG generated 3.4 xG from 18 shots. They out-PSV'd PSV.

Club Brugge, meanwhile, out-everything'd Monaco in a 4-1 home win on Thursday. They've dropped some points in domestic play, but they could be forgiven since, including qualification ties, they've outscored five Champions League opponents by a combined 17-3 thus far. Veteran Hans Vanaken and the left-sided duo of Christos Tzolis and Joaquin Seys have combined for seven goals and eight assists; Vanaken had one of each as four different FCB players scored.

Going back to last year's round-of-16 run, Club Brugge have now won nine of their last 14 UEFA matches. Via the Opta Supercomputer, they now have the 12th-highest projected point total for the league phase now; USG is 11th. Both are ahead of Borussia Dortmund, Napoli, Newcastle, Juventus and Atlético Madrid, among many others.

Dutch teams have the far greater history in this competition, but their neighbors to the south are looking great, and they've positioned themselves well.

The price tag for Eintracht's Can Uzun keeps going up

One of the most ruthless aspects of European competitions is that even if an upstart emerges and threatens to upend the status quo, the sport's powers can pluck that upstart apart in the transfer window before the competition is even over.

Benfica had one of the most impressive teams in the group stage of the Champions League in 2022-23, winning a group with both PSG and Juventus while going unbeaten against both. But Chelsea offered eleventy million Euros (okay, €121 million) for star midfielder Enzo Fernández -- who had himself only arrived from River Plate that previous summer -- in the January transfer window, and that was that. Benfica still walloped Club Brugge in the round of 16 in February, but they fell with little resistance against Inter Milan in the next round. (Chelsea grabbed another breakout star, Shakhtar Donetsk's Mykhailo Mudryk for €70 million in that same window. That one hasn't worked out quite as well.)

For players on teams that aren't mega-clubs, European competitions are almost like auditions. Eintracht Frankfurt know this as well as anyone. Omar Marmoush's four goals and two assists in 406 Europa League minutes last season helped to provide proof of concept for a €75m January transfer to Manchester City.

For good measure, Hugo Ekitike (four goals and three assists in 809 minutes) then left for Liverpool for €95 million over the summer and even though they aimed for more of a veteran presence with their own summer acquisitions, another young star has quickly emerged. Nineteen-year-old Can Uzun has three goals and two assists in three Bundesliga matches this season, and he made an immediate Champions League impact with a go-ahead goal against Galatasaray on Thursday.

Eintracht have made a lot of money due to their recent run of great talent identification and development, and it seems they'll probably be rewarded for Uzun's star turn, too. But it would be awesome to see what they might be capable of if they could keep some of this talent in-house for a bit longer at some point. They scored five goals against Galatasaray even without Marmoush and Ekitike, after all.

If we're doing some proper scouting for future big moves, here are eight other players who probably saw their respective stock prices rise quite a bit this week under the floodlights.

Ismael Saibari, PSV Eindhoven (24). He's a central midfielder who plays so advanced that he was second in the Eredivisie in assists last season (11) and ninth in goals (11), and for all the nice words I paid to Union Saint-Gilloise above, Saibari created a couple of spectacular chances to redefine the game, missing opportunities in the sixth (0.54 xG) and 55th (0.80 xG) minutes.

Camilo Durán, Qarabag (23). Qarabag have come to rule Azerbaijan's Premier League with a veteran-heavy squad, but Durán, acquired this summer from Portugal's Portimonense, took full advantage of a shot at Portuguese giants Benfica. He assisted Qarabag's first goal, then scored its second as the Atlilar (the Horsemen, a pretty fantastic nickname) came back to secure their first-ever group stage victory in the Champions League.

Lamine Camara, Monaco (21). Monaco got absolutely wrecked by Club Brugge, but Camara still filled the box score. He had 20 combined progressive passes and carries and 10 ball recoveries, most of anyone in Matchday 1. He also suffered two fouls and won seven ground duels. He enjoyed a breakout season last year, with seven league assists, and if Monaco did anything right on Thursday, Camara was probably behind it.

Daniel Bassi, Bodo/Glimt (20). He has only just begun to work his way into the rotation for the Arctic Circle club, but in just 45 minutes on Wednesday, he won a penalty, scored to cut Bodo/Glimt's deficit to 2-1, then played a key role in the sequence that made it 2-2.

Youssoupha Mbodji, Slavia Prague (21). Why was Bodo/Glimt down two goals to begin with? Because Mbodji scored twice, appearing out of nowhere from his left back position to finish two great opportunities.

Georgiy Sudakov, Benfica (23). A Benfica player recently acquired from Shakhtar? He was destined to become a Champions League star! And while his team played poorly enough against Qarabag to get its manager fired, Sudakov was fantastic, creating one assist from two chances and completing 12 progressive passes.

Nicolo Tresoldi, Club Brugge (21). After a couple of solid seasons in the 2. Bundesliga, the 6'0 Tresoldi joined a Champions League team, and including qualification he has two goals and an assist in 226 minutes. He scored Brugge's first against Monaco, and I'm guessing that's not his last in the league phase.

Marcus Rashford, Barcelona (27). Have you heard of this up-and-comer? Okay, no, this list was neither meant for known onetime stars or Barcelona players, but I had to squeeze him in here somewhere. I mean, did you see this strike?

Marcus Rashford bags a brace in spectacular fashion 😮‍💨🚀 pic.twitter.com/7J3UZoxyNf

This is what life looks like when you escape Manchester United, I guess.

My off-the-cuff 1-to-36 rankings after one matchday

• 1. Arsenal
• 2. PSG
• 3. Liverpool
• 4. Real Madrid
• 5. Bayern Munich
• 6. Barcelona
• 7. Manchester City
• 8. Inter Milan

Real Madrid are a perfect 5-for-5 since the Xabi Alonso era began in earnest last month, and while they needed a pair of penalties to survive Marseille at home, 2-1, the score was misleading -- Real Madrid generated far more quality chances (even while playing down a man for about 20 minutes because of Dani Carvajal's foolish red card) and got away with both the red card and an early-game injury to Trent Alexander-Arnold.

• 9. Chelsea
• 10. Tottenham
• 11. Napoli
• 12. Newcastle
• 13. Borussia Dortmund
• 14. Juventus
• 15. Eintracht Frankfurt
• 16. Sporting CP

BVB-Juventus set the early bar for Match of the Tournament with eight second-half goals, a brilliant surge from Borussia Dortmund, and an equally brilliant stoppage time comeback from the home team.

• 17. Atlético Madrid
• 18. Bayer Leverkusen
• 19. Villarreal
• 20. Union Saint-Gilloise
• 21. Club Brugge
• 22. Atalanta
• 23. Athletic Club
• 24. Bodo/Glimt

The fightin' Glimts of Bodo, semifinalists in last year's Europa League, erased a 2-0 deficit at Slavia Prague to salvage a point, and now they'll get a shot at revenge with a semifinal rematch at home against Tottenham Hotspur in two weeks. (Monaco, Juventus and Manchester City must also visit the Arctic circle. Love it.)

• 25. Marseille
• 26. Benfica
• 27. Qarabag
• 28. Galatasaray
• 29. Monaco
• 30. Copenhagen
• 31. PSV Eindhoven
• 32. Ajax
• 33. Pafos
• 34. Slavia Prague
• 35. Olympiacos
• 36. Kairat Almaty

I got to know this Qarabag team watching them nearly take down Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League two years ago, and with the dose of energy Durán has given them, they look awfully fun. Their comeback win over Benfica was a stunner, and they might need to spring only one more surprise to advance to the knockout rounds.