Barnwell's midseason awards: Ranking candidates for MVP, Rookie of the Year, more

Does it really feel like we're already halfway through the NFL season? In a year where there are no undefeated teams and not even a single one-loss team as we hit Week 9, actually landing on the teams that are going to stand out from the pack by the end of the season can be a murky, dangerous proposition. There are nine two-loss teams right now. This is not normal.

I'm a little more confident in evaluating what I've seen out of individual players and coaches, which helps as I put together my midseason awards ballot. Thinking about teams in terms of what we've seen over nine games is difficult, especially when so many games have come down to one possession late in the fourth quarter. It's easier to evaluate individuals, seeing their performance over hundreds of snaps.

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And so, today, that's what I'll do. As I mentioned in my quarter-season awards about a month ago, this represents who I believe to be the best players or coaches for these honors through the first half of the season, not my predictions for who the electorate will select at the end of 2025. Availability matters more in smaller samples, and players who have missed two games have missed as much as 25% of their team's season so far, which is going to be disqualifying for these half-season honors unless they've otherwise played like an MVP candidate when they've been on the field.

Let's begin with the rookies and work through seven different awards.

Jump to an award:
DROY | OROY | Protector of the Year
Coach of the Year | DPOY | OPOY | MVP

Defensive Rookie of the Year

My top pick after Week 4: Carson Schwesinger, LB, Cleveland Browns

Injuries have thrown this award into disarray, with 49ers edge rusher Mykel Williams becoming the latest rookie to go down with a serious injury -- he tore his right ACL in New Jersey last weekend. Schwesinger, my pick at the quarter-season mark, will miss extended time after sustaining a high-ankle sprain against the Patriots that will tank his chances of winning this award in the long term, while Travis Hunter is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Would-be candidates like cornerbacks Maxwell Hairston, Upton Stout and Will Johnson and edge rusher Jalon Walker have missed action, too. It hasn't been a banner year for defensive rookies, in part because of all those injuries.

3. Jacob Parrish, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There's a clear two-person tier at the top for me and a lot of players who could be third. I thought about Eagles linebacker Jihaad Campbell, who had his role cut before the bye with Vic Fangio playing him as an edge defender more often, and Bills defensive tackle Deone Walker, who has been forced into the lineup by injuries and suspensions and leads all rookies with seven tackles for loss through eight games.

Parrish's physicality and competitiveness out of the slot, though, won me over. He struggled a bit against Amon-Ra St. Brown when the Bucs played the Lions, but Parrish has otherwise held his own against tough receivers this season. He has been a valuable player near the line of scrimmage and in Todd Bowles's blitz packages this season, racking up two sacks and five tackles for loss on just 14 pass-rush opportunities. With the Bucs battling injuries just about everywhere and inconsistent play from their linebackers, Parrish has helped keep their defense afloat.

2. Carson Schwesinger, LB, Cleveland Browns

Schwesinger's going to miss time, but that hasn't really happened yet. He sustained the ankle injury after playing 88% of the defensive snaps in the Week 8 loss to the Patriots, and the Browns were subsequently on bye this week, so the second-round pick has played 95% of the defensive snaps for Cleveland this season. If these were predictions for who will win at the end of the year, Schwesinger's high-ankle sprain would preclude him from consideration. Since it's solely measuring who played best during the first half of the season, Schwesinger's injury doesn't impact things much at all.

He has been very fun to watch for a Browns defense that has somehow coaxed a hopeless offense into two victories this season. Schwesinger leads all rookies in tackle share (13.1%) while missing just 5.9% of his tackle attempts before the injury. He has been excellent against the run, routinely beating offensive linemen to their spots on runs outside the tackles and being physical enough to shed blocks to make plays in short-yardage situations. Playing behind a dominant Browns defensive line has helped, but coordinator Jim Schwartz will miss the rookie linebacker over the next few weeks if he's unable to go.

1. Abdul Carter, Edge, New York Giants

The sacks will come. Carter has only a half-sack to his name through eight games, but the underlying pressure metrics suggest that there's a lot more happening. He has been the best rookie pass rusher in the NFL, and that has been by a considerable margin.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Carter has 34 pressures. No other rookie has more than 17. He has 20 quick pressures, the immediate victories that help blow up plays before they form. No other rookie has more than nine, and Carter's total is third among all players (trailing only Nik Bonitto and Will Anderson Jr.). He hasn't been excellent against the run, a team-wide problem for a Giants defense that ranks last in EPA per play against designed rushes this season, but Carter's time is coming. Don't be surprised if he has a more visible second half.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

My top pick after Week 4: Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts

Like defense, so many of the league's talented young rookies on the offensive side of the ball earn incomplete grades. Quarterback Jaxson Dart wasn't in the lineup until Week 3, meaning he missed a quarter of the season for the Giants. Backs like Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo and Quinshon Judkins have been sidelined by injuries or unavailability. Hunter's out for the Jags. And while tight ends like Oronde Gadsden II and Colston Loveland have come through with massive performances in recent weeks, they combined for just 119 receiving yards over the first five weeks of the season.

And so, in terms of full-season production so far, I'm sticking with the three players I rolled out after Week 4 as my top three candidates at the halfway point. They're just not landing in the same order this time around.

3. Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Egbuka has cooled down a bit since his 163-yard game against the Seahawks as he battles a hamstring issue, but we're still talking about a player who has been essential to the Bucs given all their injuries at wide receiver this season. Imagine telling a Bucs fan before the season that Egbuka would have more receiving yards than Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan combined as Tampa Bay hit its midseason bye.

In fact, Egbuka leads all rookies in receiving yards (565) and is tied for the rookie lead in receiving touchdowns (five) despite spending most of the season as the top Bucs focal point for opposing defenses. He's averaging a whopping 16.5 yards per reception, an impressive figure for someone who was supposed to be more of a possession receiver than a downfield threat as he entered the league. Even after a quiet past few weeks, Egbuka's 2.3 yards per route run are still good enough for 13th in the NFL among all wide receivers, ahead of stars like Nico Collins, DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown. He has already arrived as a No. 1 wideout and an essential player for the Buccaneers.

2. Grey Zabel, G, Seattle Seahawks

It's very difficult for an offensive lineman to stand out enough in a good way and attract attention for these sorts of awards. It's even more difficult for an interior lineman to do so, given that we can't point to them shutting down a string of superstar edge rushers quite as easily.

Zabel's résumé, though, makes him the exception to that rule this year. Through eight games, the Seattle first-round pick has allowed pressures on just 3.5% of his pass-blocking opportunities, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's the best mark in the league among guards of any vintage and ranks third among all linemen with 200 pass-blocking snaps or more this season, trailing only centers Creed Humphrey and Zach Frazier. Zabel is also tied with a handful of players for the league's fewest quick pressures allowed (one). While I might peg Zabel for a pressure or two more on closer inspection, we're still looking at a guard who has been incredibly reliable in pass protection from Day 1.

He also leads all guards with an 83.8% run block win rate this season, but even that undersells his impact as a run blocker. Nobody else in the NFL is over 78.3% at guard, meaning second-placed Ezra Cleveland is closer to 20th place than he is to Zabel in first. Zabel plays in a play-action-heavy, offensive lineman-friendly scheme and isn't asked to pass block for extended periods of time as often as other linemen, but he's playing at a Pro Bowl level for one of the league's most efficient offenses.

1. Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts

I still have to go with Warren as my top pick through nine weeks, though, because of the fun factor. I've written about how entertaining it has been to watch Warren and how Shane Steichen has used him in the Colts' offense this season, and outside of Puka Nacua, I'm not sure any receiver shows off a more diverse range of skills from all kinds of locations. The Colts have used Warren as the fullback to run the triple option. They have used him as a Wildcat quarterback. They have used him on gap runs with Warren taking the handoff from the wing. And they have used him in the Nacua role as the receiver running play-action through the middle of the offensive line as part of a Sail concept, drifting out toward the sideline and blowing a poor linebacker's mind in the process.

All that would just be entertainment if Warren wasn't producing, but the numbers are there. He has 518 receiving yards and four touchdowns through nine games. His 2.0 yards per route run are good for second in the league among tight ends who have run at least 200 routes this season. And Warren's line as a receiver (255 routes, 42 catches, 56 targets, 518 receiving yards, 3 receiving scores) is virtually identical to that of future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce (258 routes, 41 catches, 53 targets, 540 receiving yards, 3 receiving scores) this season.

Protector of the Year

My top pick after Week 4: Penei Sewell, OT, Detroit Lions

I'm still fascinated to see how this first-time award plays out at the end of the year. Will it just go to the most famous offensive lineman? (Come on down, Jason Kelce!) Some of the league's best linemen have missed meaningful time, which complicates things further. As an example, Andrew Thomas has been excellent at left tackle for the Giants but he was out for the first two games of the season and only played limited snaps in Week 3, which is compromising for his chances. Missing time also keeps the third-place finisher from rising to the top.

3. Lane Johnson, OT, Philadelphia Eagles

On a snap-by-snap basis, Johnson's the best offensive lineman in football. He's a ferocious run blocker who still manages to maintain enough of his athleticism to get on the move at age 35, and pass rushers just seem to stick to him without any hope of getting away. Watch many of Jalen Hurts' big plays as a passer this season and you'll see a quarterback who has plenty of time to scan the field and wait for his receivers to get downfield, a testament to the work of Johnson and Jordan Mailata.

The only issue for Johnson, as usual, is availability. He was limited to 15% of the snaps in the Week 3 win over the Rams with a stinger, then played 75% of the snaps in the following week's victory over the Bucs, missing the fourth quarter with a shoulder issue. He has played 84% of the offensive snaps this season, which means he has missed a little over a game's worth of action. That's right about the borderline where I would hesitate to nominate a player for an award given how much time he has missed, but Johnson has been so good in the snaps he has played that I'm getting him in here.

2. Quenton Nelson, G, Indianapolis Colts

He's the best guard in the NFL this season, with guys like Zabel and Quinn Meinerz as competition. Nelson is an essential part of Indianapolis' fantastic and diverse rushing attack. Steichen gets Nelson out as a puller as often as any guard in the league, and he's a real impact player when kicking out edge rushers and running over second- and third-level defenders. So many of Jonathan Taylor's big runs have come with Nelson pulling outside and clearing out room for Taylor to accelerate and cut upfield.

The other pro with Nelson is a hidden factor: penalties. He has just one penalty for 5 yards all season, a false start against the Rams. It came in a two-minute drill with the Colts trying to drive for the tying touchdown, which doesn't help, but there just aren't many linemen who can make it to the midway point of the NFL season without a holding penalty or a handful more procedural calls.

1. Dion Dawkins, OT, Buffalo Bills

The perpetually underappreciated Dawkins gets my nod for this award at the midway point of the season. There might not be anybody in the league harder to block for in pass protection than Josh Allen, who treats whatever's designed in the playbook as a suggestion to be tossed into the trash for something more fun. The Bills obviously are happy to take that trade-off given what Allen creates as a scrambler and improviser, but it unquestionably makes life harder for his offensive linemen, especially at tackle.

Dawkins manages to handle whatever Allen and opposing pass rushers throw at him with aplomb. Among offensive linemen with 200 pass-blocking snaps or more this season, Dawkins is left on an island to block opposing linemen one-on-one at the second-highest rate -- a whopping 88.2% of the time. Despite those responsibilities, Dawkins ranks among the league's best in quick pressure rate allowed. He's also a valuable and impactful run blocker, ranking 19th in run block win rate.

With Dawkins missing just 22 snaps all season (and those came in blowouts) and facing a higher degree of difficulty than many of the other top candidates, he has been the best lineman in the NFL in 2025.

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1:36

Stephen A.: The Bills aren't the best team in the AFC

Stephen A. Smith says he isn't taking too much from the Bills' win over the Chiefs in the regular season.

Coach of the Year

My top pick after Week 4: Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions

As always, I need to throw in a reminder that I lean toward rewarding coaches who are excelling on their preferred side of the ball. As an example, take Sean McDermott and the 6-2 Bills. The former Eagles and Panthers defensive assistant won't get any attention for this award since he has been in this role for nine seasons, but every two-loss coach should be in consideration.

He's not here, though, because the Bills are winning games with their offense. Buffalo's third in EPA per play on offense and 13th on the defensive side of the ball. The Bills were 21st by the latter metric before their Week 7 bye. McDermott is still an excellent coach, and he has the defense playing much better over the past two weeks, but I think it makes more sense to give a bonus to coaches whose teams are thriving in their area of expertise.

Unfortunately, in a league where there are nine two-loss teams (and viable candidates with even more losses, with people like Campbell and Kyle Shanahan), you could name about one-third of the league's coaches as justifiable selections here. If your favorite coach isn't in the top three, they probably aren't far off. This is just a very crowded pool right now.

3. Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams

There are lots of teams who could make a case that they could be undefeated or something close right now. Some are flimsier than others. The Broncos could very realistically be 9-0, but they've also rolled off wins in the final two minutes over the Eagles, Jets, Giants and Texans, the latter of whom were stuck with a backup quarterback in Davis Mills for most of Sunday's game. So, the Broncos could also be 4-5 or even worse.

The Rams have two close losses, but their six wins have come by an average of more than 15 points. They've gotten to play backups in Tyler Shough and Cooper Rush, which has made life easier for Chris Shula's defense, but the offense has absolutely been humming. McVay's team is second in the league in ESPN's Football Power Index behind the Chiefs, and it is in a dead heat with the Eagles as the NFC favorites to win the Super Bowl.

McVay continues to create advantages on the offensive side of the ball, even when he's missing key players like Nacua. The Rams have expanded the creativity of their play-action game this season and nearly doubled their rate of multi-tight end sets with solid returns. Gone are the days when the Rams would stick the same players on the field in 11 personnel for 98% of their offensive snaps, and while they're not quite as explosive as they were in those days, they can be ruthlessly efficient while doing more to protect 37-year-old quarterback Matthew Stafford.

2. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots

The Patriots are back, and while the big story has understandably been the development of second-year quarterback Drake Maye, Vrabel and a flotilla of veteran free agents have turned around the defense. A unit that ranked 30th in EPA per play on defense last season is all the way up to sixth through nine weeks, and that has been without defensive coordinator Terrell Williams, who has been away from the team while being treated for prostate cancer. Vrabel has players like K'Lavon Chaisson, Harold Landry III and Jaylinn Hawkins playing the best football of their careers.

The Patriots are probably a pair of goal-line turnovers against the Steelers away from starting 8-1. The only hole you can poke in their hot start is the league's easiest schedule per FPI, with their only wins against teams above .500 coming via the Panthers and Bills. Of course, the Patriots also play the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL from here on out, so don't be shocked if Vrabel keeps rolling.

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2:17

Eisen: Drake Maye has 'dropped his Huggies'

Rich Eisen discusses how Drake Maye has transformed the Patriots in his second season in the NFL.

1. Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Daniel Jones and the Colts are coming off their worst performance of the season in Sunday's ugly loss to the Steelers, but one disappointing game can't wash away what has been a wildly impressive first half. Even with that loss on the books, the Colts are averaging 3.3 points per drive on offense. The only teams that averaged more points per drive through nine weeks since 2000 are the 2007 Patriots, 2018 Chiefs and 2018 Saints. Those are three of the greatest seasons by three of the best quarterbacks in league history.

Steichen has an offense built around Jones producing like it's the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams. The former Eagles assistant did excellent work building an offense in Philly around the quarterback run game with Jalen Hurts and created openings for Anthony Richardson Sr. once he came to Indy. But with Jones mostly limited to scrambles and the occasional designed run, the Colts have actually been better. With the offensive line excelling, Jonathan Taylor has flummoxed teams on the ground with everything from zone to wham and wind back concepts.

They might not be one of the best offenses in recent league history over the rest of the season, but Steichen is getting more out of a less-heralded group of players than anybody else in the game.

Defensive Player of the Year

My top pick after Week 4: Nik Bonitto, Edge, Denver Broncos

I'm usually overwhelmed by the options for Defensive Player of the Year. In a typical year, there are about 10 completely plausible winners to fit into three spots, which makes seven fanbases very angry. It's no fun because those seven players are all absolutely incredible. The differences between truly dominant NFL pass rushers are so small, and their numbers might come down to who gets to play against a second-string tackle or an overwhelmed rookie quarterback more often in a given year. And that's without even considering seasons like 2024 when Zack Baun and Pat Surtain II were head and shoulders above the other players at their respective positions and forced their way onto my ballot.

Well, this year, things are surprisingly easier for me. Some of the top candidates heading into the season are either injured (Nick Bosa, Trey Hendrickson, Jeffery Simmons) or haven't been able to make their usual impact (T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons, Chris Jones). There are no obvious candidates at off-ball linebacker or in the secondary. There's a smaller group of dominant edge rushers to pick from that left me with only four or five realistic options to sort through here.

3. Nik Bonitto, Edge, Denver Broncos

After four games, Bonitto's numbers as a pass rusher were simply off the charts. He was generating quick pressures twice as often as Aidan Hutchinson and was even lapping guys like Myles Garrett. He wasn't as big of a name as other candidates, but I had no qualms about naming Bonitto as the best defensive player in football at that point.

Bonitto's still producing, but after eight sacks in his first five games, he hasn't landed one in his past three contests. He still leads the NFL in quick pressures (22) and quick pressure rate (11.1%), but the rest of the field has caught up there, and he's just one percentage point ahead of the next guy in these rankings.

With the pressure rates getting closer, I have to lean toward players who face more difficult pass-rushing opportunities. Bonitto is chipped on 17.2% of his dropbacks and double-teamed 6.1% of the time, which is a sign of how offenses are growing to respect his impact. Still, if we add those figures together, teams help in pass protection on Bonitto 23.3% of the time, which is 27th among edge rushers with 150 pass-rush opportunities or more this season, comfortably behind the other players on this list.

Bonitto can be fast enough off the line at times to prevent even the initial blocker from getting a finger on him, which is going to make double-teams impossible, but there are other players in his ballpark who simply draw more attention, including the two guys ahead of him.

2. Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Houston Texans

Anderson hasn't had that single dominant game that draws attention this season, but he might be the most consistent pass rusher in the NFL. He has at least one sack in six of his first eight contests and at least one quarterback knockdown in all but one of those games. Anderson's 21 quick quarterback pressures and 10.0% quick quarterback pressure rate rank second in the league behind Bonitto.

There were concerns about Anderson's play strength heading into the league, but the sheer athleticism and torque he generates has made that a nonissue. You don't see many 240-pound linemen able to bull-rush offensive linemen back into their quarterbacks, but Anderson has done that to Rob Havenstein and Olisaemeka Udoh this season. And while he obviously gets help from Danielle Hunter's presence on the opposite side, opposing offenses are offering a chip or double-team on Anderson 28% of the time.

1. Myles Garrett, Edge, Cleveland Browns

Let's be honest. Garrett is simply a tier above everyone else on defense right now. He has been completely unblockable this season, to the extent that teammates like Maliek Collins, Alex Wright and Isaiah McGuire are all having career years by feasting on twists, stunts and perennial one-on-one opportunities throughout the game. Those are a product of what Garrett is doing to opposing offensive lines.

Garrett is second in the NFL with 10 sacks, trailing only Brian Burns of the Giants, who has had 32 more pass-rush opportunities. He is running a sack rate of 5%, the best mark among pass rushers with 150 opportunities or more. Garrett is also turning 29.4% of his pressures into sacks, which is third behind Burns and Byron Young, who has been having an excellent season for the Rams.

All that's happening while teams desperately try to find a solution to take Garrett out of the game. He's being chipped on 29.5% of his pass-rush snaps and double-teamed 13.4% of the time. Again, adding those up, teams are offering extra help to linemen trying to block Garrett just under 43% of the time. The only player who has faced a second blocker more often is Watt, who has seen way more chips (37.5%) than double-teams (8.8%).

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2:26

Eisen wonders what Garrett is thinking after Hutchinson's extension

Rich Eisen wonders what Myles Garrett's thought process is after seeing Aidan Hutchinson's big extension with the Browns well out of playoff contention.

Oh, and just for fun, Garrett also leads all edge rushers in stuffs against the run for no gain or a loss (10) and stuff rate (7.5%) this season. His 15 tackles for loss are the most any player has had through his team's first eight games of the season since J.J. Watt did that for the Texans in 2015. Garrett is always great and his team stinks, which is going to numb some to his play this season. Don't be fooled. He has been an absolute force of nature.

Offensive Player of the Year

My top pick after Week 4: Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

As always, since the MVP award always goes to an offensive player and almost always goes to a quarterback, I choose to limit the candidates for this award to running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and offensive linemen. The quarterbacks will have their day in the next section. And as with Defensive Player of the Year, I'm surprised at how easy it was to narrow down the field to a handful of candidates. I ended up with four running backs and two wide receivers.

At running back, Christian McCaffrey leads the league in yards from scrimmage, but he has been inefficient as a runner, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. San Francisco's run blocking has suffered with George Kittle injured and their guard tandem of Connor Colby and Dominick Puni struggling (the latter as he plays through a knee injury), but Brian Robinson Jr. is also averaging 4.8 yards per carry behind the same line in a much smaller sample.

Bijan Robinson has finally delivered the explosive plays we all knew he had in his locker this season, generating three 50-plus-yard gains (one more than any other player). Robinson is averaging 5 yards per carry and is on pace to finish within 17 receiving yards of a 1,000-rushing-yard, 1,000-receiving-yard season. But he has also fumbled twice and surprisingly been a liability in pass protection. The Falcons star just misses out.

At wide receiver, it pained me to cut Nacua, but availability is an ability. Nacua has been incredible on the field for the Rams this season, with a seemingly preternatural ability to separate, elite hands and a meaningful impact as both a rusher and blocker in the run game. But he has also missed one full game and halves of two more because of injuries. He has been so good when healthy that I almost snuck him on here, but missing 25% of the Rams' season left Nacua in fourth place.

3. James Cook III, RB, Buffalo Bills

He just keeps getting better. Cook was a useful rotational player in Year 1, a solid starter in Year 2 and an explosive back with a ton of success near the goal line in Year 3. And now he has grown into arguably the most efficient back in football in Year 4.

Cook is running a whopping 62.7% success rate this season on the ground, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. That's the best mark in the NFL and the fourth-best mark any back has posted across 100 or more carries through his team's first eight games since 1978. (Jahmyr Gibbs's first eight games in 2024 come in just ahead of Cook.) Cook also leads all backs in rush yards over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

There's still plenty of big-play ability in Cook's game, as the fourth-year pro has 44- and 64-yard rushes to his name this season. And frankly, while he already leads the league in rush yards per game, he would rank even higher if the Bills hadn't taken him out early in the blowout win over the Panthers, where Cook racked up 216 rushing yards despite playing only 44.4% of the offensive snaps.

The only hole you can poke in Cook's candidacy is his relatively modest involvement in the passing game, as the 26-year-old has just 13 catches for 100 yards this season. Even there, though, one of Cook's receptions was a 51-yarder to help set up a touchdown during the fourth quarter comeback victory over the Ravens in Week 1. He's comfortably the most important playmaker for Josh Allen on the Bills' roster.

2. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Taylor is coming off his worst game of the season, but he has been the driving force behind a dominant Colts offense. He leads all players with 895 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, while his 5.7 yards per carry are just narrowly ahead of Cook for the best mark in the league. He has also racked up twice as many receiving yards as his Bills counterpart, which made for the difference between these two backs.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Taylor has broken nearly 36% of the tackle attempts he has faced this season. The only other back with 100 or more carries this season and a broken tackle rate above 28% is Ashton Jeanty. Taylor is averaging a fraction under 3 yards after contact this season, which is second in the league behind Javonte Williams of the Cowboys (by one one-hundredth of a yard per attempt). He's also turning 30% of his carries into first downs, the best mark in the NFL, and has done this without a single fumble. Taylor has been spectacular this season.

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1:09

Was the Colts' loss a bad game or a bad sign?

Domonique Foxworth, Rex Ryan and Adam Schefter debate if the Colts' level of concern after getting beat by the Steelers.

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

With Taylor and Cook in a close race, though, Smith-Njigba's dominance over the rest of the players at his position made him the pick for Offensive Player of the Year. With Nacua missing time because of his injuries, there really isn't anyone close to Smith-Njigba at wide receiver this season.

He is averaging 4.6 yards per route run this season. To put that in context, the only other players averaging more than 3 yards per route run are Nacua (3.6) and Dalton Kincaid (3.2). Smith-Njigba is averaging about twice as many yards per route run as George Pickens (2.4), who is having a career year. He's nearly doubling up superstars like Ja'Marr Chase (2.4) and Justin Jefferson (2.4). That seems almost impossible.

ESPN has route data going back through 2007. Over that time frame, Smith-Njigba's 4.6 yards per route run mark is comfortably the best of any player through nine weeks. Tyreek Hill's 2023 season (4.1) is the only other wideout to top 4 yards per route run through nine weeks. Randy Moss was at 3.2 yards per route run in 2007 through nine weeks. That's where we're at with how ridiculous Smith-Njigba has been this season.

To be fair, wide receivers who aren't on the field with many other wideouts at the same time can have an easier time of generating yards per route run, and the Seahawks love using their multi-tight end sets under Klint Kubiak. But even if we look at plays where teams have three or more wideouts on the field, Smith-Njigba's 3.8 YPRR mark is still comfortably the best in football, with Nacua (3.3) still the only other wideout over the 3-yard mark.

The numbers match up with what's appearing on film. Smith-Njigba has been able to routinely separate at all levels, win vertically and create significant yardage after the catch. He's running a 72.5% catch rate despite having a top-20 rate of air yards per target. NFL Next Gen Stats estimates that Smith-Njigba has caught 10.4 more passes than an average receiver would have with the same targets, the best mark in the league. It's not out of the question to consider Smith-Njigba as a legitimate MVP candidate.

Most Valuable Player

My top pick after Week 4: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Gulp. OK, here's where things get tougher than the Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year awards. Smith-Njigba and Garrett, in particular, would have reasonable MVP considerations given how much better they've been than the rest of the stars at their respective positions. And then, to compound that issue, there are nine quarterbacks who have at least a plausible MVP argument. That list doesn't even include Lamar Jackson, who actually leads the league in Total QBR (78.9); the two-time MVP has played only four and a half games this season.

Let's work backward. As good as Garrett and Smith-Njigba have been, there are just too many passers playing at a high level for me to stick a nonquarterback into the top three. And it's easier to run through these options by eliminating the quarterbacks whose cases aren't as strong as those of my eventual top trio.

Bo Nix has been incredible when the Broncos have needed him most. In the fourth quarter this season, his 77.1 QBR is the fourth-best mark in the league, and the second-year quarterback is tied for the league lead with four fourth-quarter comeback victories. In the first three quarters, though, Nix is 20th in QBR, as he is running the league's third-worst completion percentage and fifth-worst first-down rate. Nix takes sacks at the lowest rate in the NFL, which helps raise his floor, but he's only an MVP candidate for 15 minutes per week.

Baker Mayfield was a hot candidate earlier in the year based on his performance in his own series of fourth-quarter comebacks. He has made big plays as a scrambler and also has four fourth-quarter comeback victories, but those wins have included narrow victories over the likes of the Falcons, Texans and Jets, with the victory over the Seahawks as a notable exception in terms of quality opposition. Mayfield's QBR is actually worse in the fourth quarter (24th) than it is in the first three (16th), owing to a completion percentage of just 59.5% in the final stanza. He has missed some throws but Mayfield deserves credit for making an offense that's missing starters at receiver and along the offensive line hum along.

Dak Prescott perennially ranks among the most accurate quarterbacks in football when healthy, and 2025 is no exception; the Cowboys' starter is sixth in completion percentage over expectation (NGS), with one of the lowest off-target rates in the league -- even without CeeDee Lamb for much of the season. He also played a key role in fourth-quarter comebacks against the Giants and Packers. The issue for Prescott is his passes haven't consistently moved the chains. He is 13th in the league in first down rate and 25th in yards per completion, which is fine for the Cowboys but not enough when compared to more explosive options in these rankings.

Justin Herbert was off to a hot start and he continues to make strides as a scrambler, but the Chargers' star has thrown eight interceptions in nine games. His propensity of extending plays can lead to highlight-reel throws, but unlike Josh Allen, Herbert takes sacks on just under 8% of his dropbacks. He has looked like a different quarterback without Joe Alt (and Rashawn Slater), and while that's not Herbert's fault, that inconsistency is going to cost the sixth-year pro.

Jordan Love leads the NFL in EPA per dropback as a passer by the NFL Next Gen Stats model, a testament to how explosive he can be when the Packers let their quarterback throw the ball around. Love has turned the ball over only four times and has a 4.2% sack rate, which is way ahead of the league average, so he's also doing a good job of avoiding negative plays. But there are reasonable complaints about Love's consistency and the timing of those turnovers, which is why Total QBR -- which adjusts for game situation -- has Love ninth in the league.

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1:17

Should managers be hesitant to start Jordan Love in fantasy?

Field Yates breaks down why Jordan Love isn't a lock to start in fantasy this week.

Daniel Jones was a candidate for the top three before last week's disaster game against the Steelers, as he turned the ball over five times in a 27-20 loss. Jones has otherwise been excellent in a stunning turn of events for the Colts, but Josh Allen turned the ball over only six times over the entirety of last season. Five turnovers on one Sunday are going to set Jones' MVP candidacy back quite a bit.

Jalen Hurts has answered the bell when the Eagles have needed him, helping lead a comeback victory over the Rams before throwing for 323 yards and three touchdown passes in a win over the Vikings a few weeks later. Hurts' 15-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio is the best in the NFL, and if you add rushing touchdowns and fumbles to the mix, he has scored 20 touchdowns and turned the ball over just two times this season.

Outside of the tush push, though, Hurts hasn't been a consistent part of the QB run game, with his rushing workload mostly limited to scrambles this season. That reduces some of the value he generated in past years. And while Hurts doesn't turn the ball over, the Super Bowl winner is taking sacks on a career-high 10.4% of his dropbacks. Those sacks make a huge difference; the Eagles are more than twice as likely to score touchdowns on drives without a Hurts sack than when he takes at least one. I still think the 27-year-old is somehow underrated, but the mounting sack rate takes him out of MVP consideration for me.

Drake Maye has been wildly entertaining for the Patriots, winning games and elevating what looked like an underwhelming roster of offensive talent in New England. The second-year quarterback leads the league in completion percentage over expectation (plus-9.6%, per NGS), is third in yards per attempt (9.0) and has racked up the third-most scramble yards (263), trailing only Herbert and Patrick Mahomes.

The only downsides? Maye has played a relatively light schedule of opposing defenses, as the average team he has faced this season ranks 19th in QBR against. And like Hurts, while Maye has thrown only four interceptions, he has also taken sacks at an 11.8% clip, the second-worst rate in the league. Some of those sacks can be a product of an offensive line that's more competent than overwhelming up front, but many of them are on the QB. And if you don't believe me when I say that, ask Maye himself. That said, there's a five-person tier at the top of these rankings, and Maye's firmly ensconced in that top five.

Josh Allen was my last cut from the top three. On one hand, you can make a case that Allen is playing the best football of his career. His completion percentage -- once laughably lagging below league average -- is all the way up at 70.4%. His yards per attempt are also at a career high, with Allen topping 8 yards per throw for the first time as a pro. The guy who once inspired legitimate criticism from folks like me for not having NFL-caliber accuracy is running the best off-target rate (8.3%) of any quarterback in the game.

It's also fair to point out that there's more negative in Allen's game than a year ago when he was league MVP. Allen's sack rate has more than doubled to 7.5% of his dropbacks, up from an impossibly-low 2.8%. Allen has turned the ball over five times in eight games, which isn't bad, but as I mentioned in the Jones comment above, the 29-year-old turned the ball over only six times all season in 2024.

Allen's old parlor trick of being the only quarterback in football to actually improve when he's under pressure hasn't been the case this season, too. His Total QBR drops by nearly 50 points under pressure, which is just over the league average. And while there were late-game clutch moments for Allen in the dramatic comeback victory over the Ravens in the opener, he was uncharacteristically sloppy and at fault in midseason losses to the Patriots and Falcons.

I'm sympathetic toward the reality that Allen doesn't have the same cast of receivers as his competition, and there's no doubting that he's the focal point of how and why the Bills' offense works the way it does. He's probably the quarterback I would be most scared to face in a two-minute drill with the game on the line, which is why I'll never understand why the Ravens punted in Week 1. But Allen hasn't been as good in 2025 as he was in 2024.

3. Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks

There's a strong quantitative case that Darnold is the most productive quarterback in the league. He leads the NFL in completion percentage over expectation (9.3%, per NGS), yards per attempt (9.6), yards per dropback (9.1) and adjusted net yards per attempt (9.4). The concerns about Darnold falling apart under adversity are yet unfounded. He has turned the ball over seven times across eight games, but Darnold is taking sacks on just 4% of his dropbacks, cutting last season's rate from Minnesota in half despite playing behind an offensive line that looked dismal on paper last year.

It would be naive to pretend that some of the improvement in the O-line and with Darnold is a product of playing in what has been an extremely quarterback-friendly scheme under Klint Kubiak. Nobody's throwing more out of two- and even three-tight end groupings than Darnold, and he's capitalizing on those looks, averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt there. The Seahawks aren't running play-action at a particularly aggressive rate, but Darnold is averaging a ridiculous 15.3 yards per attempt when they do throw a play fake into the mix. Other quarterbacks use play-action and multiple tight end sets, too, so it's not fair to use that as a criticism only for Darnold. But he might be in the group with players like Jones and Jared Goff, where they are a little more sensitive to needing the situation to be right than some other options.

In obvious dropback passing situations, when the NFL Next Gen Stats model projects at least a 75% chance of a passing play, Darnold's ninth among starters in passer rating and 17th in EPA per dropback. The Seahawks have had a great defense, have rarely played from behind and haven't needed to put Darnold in those situations very often, which is a testament to their team performance. When you throw in the fact that Darnold hasn't contributed anything with his legs this season, has gotten absurd play out of Smith-Njigba and doesn't (in my opinion) drive the offense in the same way that the quarterbacks ahead of him do, I'm willing to slot him in at No. 3.

2. Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

After battling a back injury over the summer, Stafford has been brilliant in his 17th(!) pro season. He has posted a 21-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, adding two fumbles on the ground, one of which was on a pitch dropped by Blake Corum. (If you're not sure why that goes down as a fumble on Stafford's record, you're not the only one.) Stafford is taking sacks on only 4% of his dropbacks, as well, so the Rams' starter has done an excellent job of avoiding negative plays.

Shouldering a heavier passing workload than quarterbacks like Darnold and Allen, Stafford leads the league in passing first downs, even though other QBs have already played a ninth game this season. As you might suspect given his touchdown rate, Stafford has been absolutely unstoppable in the red zone this season, going 33-of-51 for 205 yards, 17 touchdown passes and no picks. He has formed an immediate bond with Davante Adams, whose propensity for short touchdowns as he approaches his mid-30s is turning him into the receiving version of late-career Jerome Bettis. (That's a compliment!)

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0:42

Calvin Johnson to McAfee: Matthew Stafford makes it look so easy

Calvin Johnson tells Pat McAfee how his former Lions teammate Matthew Stafford's game has improved since joining the Rams.

You could make a case that Stafford has put his team in a position to be undefeated this year. In each of the Rams' two losses, Stafford held up his end of the bargain with the game on the line. With the Rams trailing by one in Philadelphia, Stafford drove the Rams 44 yards into field goal range, only for Joshua Karty's game-winning kick to be blocked. On Thursday night against the 49ers in Week 5, Stafford drove the Rams to the 3-yard line with 1:07 to go in a three-point game, only for Kyren Williams to fumble. Stafford then got the Rams into position to kick the tying field goal after they got the ball back with 36 seconds and no timeouts, and in overtime, he completed four passes for 56 yards to get them in position for another tying or winning score. But the 49ers stuffed Williams on a fourth-and-1 carry to end the game.

What's missing? Not much. Stafford obviously doesn't do anything with his legs, which is a minus compared to the quarterback just ahead of him. He has run a little hot in terms of dropped interceptions or near-picks, most notably when he threw a would-be shallow route directly to Zaire Franklin on a sim pressure in the win over the Colts.

And Stafford has missed a few more throws than his reputation would suggest, especially in the win over the Ravens, where he left two touchdowns and a would-be long completion to Jordan Whittington on the field. An overthrow to Nacua with 19 seconds left in the first half against the Eagles might have cost the Rams a shot at the end zone and a potential touchdown. His ball placement on the third-down pass preceding that Williams stuff against the 49ers wasn't great, either, forcing the Rams into an unnecessary short-yardage situation and eventual failure. If this sounds like picking nits, well, there's not much separating the great QBs at the top of the league right now. And this is just enough to push me toward a familiar option. ...

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

This isn't a statistically stunning season for Mahomes. His completion percentage is actually at a career low among his years as a starter (64.6%). He's averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, which is a step above where he was throwing underneath over and over again in recent years but not where he was as a devilish downfield passer at the beginning of his career. His 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio is good, but other quarterbacks are playing better. And the Chiefs are 5-4, so it's not like we can even point to Mahomes pulling out a series of close games like he did in 2024.

What Mahomes is, of course, is the most inevitable quarterback in football. He's in a dead heat for the lead in cumulative EPA this year alongside Maye, and while the Patriots starter has been more spectacular than Mahomes this season, the Chiefs standout has made fewer mistakes. After a difficult start to the season without his top two wideouts or any semblance of a run game, Mahomes leads the NFL in EPA and is second in success rate over the past two months.

Mahomes' return to throwing downfield has generally been successful, as he ranks fifth in the NFL in QBR on throws 20 or more yards downfield, up from 28th in 2024. Some early-season passes off Tyquan Thornton's hands or narrowly out of bounds might have yielded even better numbers, while Mahomes also drew a 52-yard pass interference call on a throw to Hollywood Brown. (For the conspiracy theorists, it's one of two pass interference calls against Chiefs opponents this season.) And while Mahomes has thrown five picks, two of them have come on drops by Travis Kelce.

The 2023-24 versions of Mahomes tortured teams by pulling out third down after third down, but this version has ripped them apart without needing to ever get there. Mahomes leads the league in QBR on first down this season (81.0). For a team that hasn't had much of a run game for most of the year, those first-down completions have been essential in terms of keeping the offense humming on schedule or picking up new first downs immediately.

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1:47

Stephen A. shuts down any talk of Chiefs missing the playoffs

Stephen A. Smith makes his case for why Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are still going to make the playoffs after a slow start.

And while running Mahomes has usually been a playoff-only feature, the 30-year-old has added much more with his legs this season. The future Hall of Famer has generated 17.1 EPA on scrambles and designed rush attempts in 2025, third in the NFL behind Jaxson Dart and Mayfield. He has generated five first downs over expectation on those carries, the most of any quarterback in the league (NGS). No quarterback has more 10-plus-yard runs this season. And Mahomes hasn't fumbled as a runner all year, even with his newfound insistence on trying to run over defenders.

Is Mahomes a fool-proof pick? No. You could argue that the loss to the Jaguars turned on a brutal pick-six, one of the few interceptions truly on Mahomes this season. Stafford has been more ruthless in the red zone. Maye has been more explosive. Darnold has the best numbers. Allen is just as creative and beat Mahomes in Buffalo last week. I could see a case for any of the five as MVP.

When you consider the burden they have to bear within the offense and the help (or lack thereof) they've had in 2025, though, Mahomes is very narrowly the best of the bunch. For now. Ask me again in two months.