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Big wins at a premium
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Arsenal might be six points clear at the top of the Premier League table, but the division is arguably tighter than ever. Just eight points separate sixth-placed Liverpool and 14th-placed Brighton. It feels like every point in the English top-flight has to be extremely hardly fought for. Even bottom-placed Wolves, on just eight points this season, have only been beaten by four or more goals on one occasion, and that was their very first game of the campaign. There is one damning statistic, which we will get to later, that really puts the tightness of this season into perspective.
The strength of the Premier League is further supported by English team's dominance in Europe this season, with five of the top eight clubs in the Champions League table emanating from England, whilst Aston Villa are the current favourites to win the Europa League and Crystal Palace are the favourites to win the Europa Conference League. When it comes to matches in the English top-flight, Premier League teams just simply don't seem to get smashed anymore - certainly not at the rate we have become used to.
Why the Premier League is tighter than ever
As illustrated in the graphic above, 25 games into the season, there has been just four occasions in which a team has lost by a margin of four or more goals. And furthermore, only one game that has been won by a five or more goal-margin. Manchester City beat Wolves 4-0 on the opening weekend, and also beat Burnley 5-1 at the Etihad in September. League leaders Arsenal beat Leeds United home and away by a 4+ goal margin, winning 5-0 at the Emirates and 4-0 at Elland Road. Chelsea beat West Ham 5-1 in East London near the start of the campaign, whilst Aston Villa won 4-0 against Bournemouth in November.
Now, to be practically two thirds of the way into the season, and have only had six games that have been won by four or more goals is not normal. In fact, far from it. When we look back at the last 10 Premier League seasons at this stage (after 25 match-days) we can see a stark difference with this term. After 25 games last season, there had been 18 games won by a 4+ goal margin. After 25 games in the 2023/24 season, there had been 19 games won by a 4+ goal margin. Since the 2016/17 campaign, the previous lowest figure at this stage had been 14 games - in both the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons.
The fact that this term is less than half of that really reinforces the idea that goals are not given up easily in the Premier League this season, and the division is more competitive than ever before. If we trawl back through the archives and go all the way back to the Premier League's inaugural season in 1992/93, just one campaign had fewer games with 4+ goal margins at this stage. Incredibly, in what seems a bizarre anomaly, the 2002/03 season had just two games won by four or more goals after 25 games. But in the final 13 matches of that campaign, there were a further 12 matches won by that margin.
So why have we seen far less games where teams have been battered and far more matches decided by a smaller margin? The first thing to look at is the sheer quality in the division, which has stemmed from the Premier League severely outspending all other leagues in the past decade. The Premier League currently has a market value of €12.43 billion - over double the next league which is LaLiga (€5.47b). The English top-flight has been spending big for some time, but it seems that Premier League teams are finally actually spending their money a bit smarter and it is really driving the standards up.
The second aspect to examine is the tactical nouse being showcased in the Premier League. Every small detail, from throw-ins to goal kicks, to distances between each player, is worked on forensically. It sometimes leads to football matches being more like battles of chess. Make a wrong move and you get punished. Most Premier League teams have now have a set-piece coach because they recognise how hard it is to score in the English top-flight, and how much of an advantage set-pieces can be to breaking down low blocks. Set-piece goals are being scored more than ever.
So is it a bad thing for the league? It depends what you come for. If you want to see tight, tactical battles, with not much in it, then it's ideal. If you want to just see pure goals, even if it is one team pummelling the other, then the Premier League has probably taken a turn for the worse for you. It is true that the game seems to sometimes be seeing less overall playing time, which is certainly bad for the spectacle, with teams taking longer on throw ins and dead balls. But in general, we are seeing every point fought for more than ever, which certainly adds to the competitiveness of the most valuable league in world football.
