Men's March Madness: Predictions, previews for every Sweet 16 game Friday

The first half of the Elite Eight is set with Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa punching their tickets Thursday. Who could join them in the regional finals of the 2026 men's NCAA tournament?

ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make their picks for every Sweet 16 game Friday and break down each team's keys to advancing.

All times Eastern.

(5) St. John's vs. (1) Duke

7:10 p.m., CBS

Borzello's prediction: Duke 73-71
Medcalf's prediction: Duke 77-70

How St. John's can advance to the Elite Eight: The focus of Rick Pitino's game plan against Duke obviously will be centered on slowing down Cameron Boozer. St. John's has one of the elite defenses in college basketball, but what the Red Storm don't have is the sort of length and athleticism that have troubled Boozer at times. Much of the responsibility will fall on the individual defensive abilities of Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell, with the latter probably tasked with chasing Isaiah Evans in the half court.

Offensively, the Red Storm need to keep up their improved 3-point shooting. Before the NCAA tournament, they hadn't made double-digit 3s in a game since Jan. 10. They've now done it in both tournament games, including 11 against Kansas.

How Duke can advance to Elite Eight: Duke has two areas of advantage on every team: Boozer and its defense. When the Blue Devils turned up the heat defensively against TCU in the second round and began playing through Boozer on the offensive end, they began to dominate the Horned Frogs and completely changed the game. Boozer is the most productive player on the court every time he plays, although Pitino, a Hall of Fame coach, and Big East Player of the Year Ejiofor will hope to slow him down.

Duke's defense, the top-ranked unit in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom, has very few weaknesses -- but the Red Storm aren't built in the ideal fashion to cause consistent problems for the Blue Devils. They've shot the ball better recently, but they're far from a consistent 3-point shooting team, and they rely heavily on offensive rebounds and free throws. Duke does an incredible job of limiting opponents in both areas. -- Borzello

(4) Alabama vs. (1) Michigan

7:35 p.m., TBS/truTV

Borzello's prediction: Michigan 92-83
Medcalf's prediction: Michigan 90-80

How Alabama can advance to the Elite Eight: It's not a secret, but Alabama will need to make a barrage of 3s to have any chance of staying close with Michigan. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempts per game and 3-point attempt rate. They made 19 3s in a second-round win over Texas Tech. That has to continue against Michigan, as it will be be extremely difficult to score consistently at the rim against Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. Defensively, it's going to be an uphill battle. Alabama has given up huge scoring efforts to good teams on multiple occasions, and the Crimson Tide rank in the middle of the pack in the SEC in defensive efficiency.

This game is going to feature plenty of points and plenty of pace. Alabama won't back down from a running game with Michigan, and a shootout could play into the Tide's hands.

How Michigan can advance to Elite Eight: When Michigan leans into its strengths -- its frontcourt, size and ability to dominate the paint at both ends of the court -- there are few teams in the country capable of competing with the Wolverines for 40 minutes. Mara is a force at the rim defensively, and is becoming a more consistent option on offense, and Yaxel Lendeborg has shown he can take over games on offense. Alabama doesn't have the skill or talent up front to match Michigan, and doesn't offer much rim protection, ranking near the bottom of the SEC in block percentage.

The other key for the Wolverines will be whether Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett can slow down star Alabama guard Labaron Philon Jr., who had 29 points in the first round and 12 assists in the second round. He's capable of carrying the Crimson Tide. -- Borzello

(3) Michigan State vs. (2) UConn

9:45 p.m., CBS

Borzello's prediction: UConn 68-64
Medcalf's prediction: UConn 70-65

How Michigan State can advance to Elite Eight: Personnel matchups generate the most headlines during the NCAA tournament, but coaching matchups are equally -- if not more -- impactful. During a tenure that began in 1995, Tom Izzo developed an uncanny ability to zero in on an opposing team's top players and create problems for them. That's the Spartans' ticket to another Elite Eight.

Izzo's primary mission against UConn is to limit Tarris Reed Jr.'s impact on the game. The Huskies are a different team when he's a dominant presence in the post. If Reed is grabbing offensive rebounds and giving them an abundance of second-chance opportunities, Michigan State will be in a tough spot. The good news for the Spartans is that they are connecting on 35.9% of their 3-point attempts and capitalizing on second-chance opportunities with a No. 10 national ranking in offensive rebounding rate. It will be key for them to hit more 3s, extend UConn's defense and create more paths to the basket for Jeremy Fears Jr. & Co. They have to give UConn a reason to guard on the perimeter -- if the Spartans just allow the Huskies to sit in the lane, challenge shots around the rim and grab rebounds, Michigan State could lose.

Izzo has been in this position before -- against better teams -- and won. His experience will matter in a matchup against Dan Hurley.

How UConn can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Izzo, UConn will have to show up as the top-notch defensive outfit that held UCLA to just a 39% clip inside the arc in the second round. The Huskies' win over the Bruins served as a reminder that they can be a great defensive team when they want to be. In the Big Ten tournament, UCLA had produced 132 points per 100 possessions in a win over Michigan State. In the round of 32, the Bruins -- who played without leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee) -- scored only 57 points, their second-lowest total of the season. UCLA star Donovan Dent had nine assists but also finished 2-for-9 shooting with a pair of turnovers. That's the same attention UConn will need to give Fears. When he's comfortable, Michigan State's offense soars. The Huskies can't let that happen.

On offense, Braylon Mullins could be an X factor. Reed had a double-double against UCLA but not the historic numbers he put up against Furman in the first round (31 points, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban recorded a career-high 27 points against the Bruins, with Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. scoring two points combined. If Reed and Karaban can create a balanced inside-outside attack, Michigan State will have to find a way to disrupt that, which could give Mullins -- who is averaging 14.5 points in two NCAA tournament games so far -- more freedom and opportunities to make plays and create off the dribble or on off-ball screens.

The Huskies have a multitude of options to score, and as long as most of them are effective, they can get back to the Elite Eight. -- Medcalf

(6) Tennessee vs. (2) Iowa State

10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV

Borzello's prediction: Iowa State 67-65
Medcalf's prediction: Iowa State 74-68

How Tennessee can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Iowa State, Tennessee will have to play the same disciplined defense that stopped Virginia in the final minutes of Sunday's second-round game. That task begins with Felix Okpara, who had four blocks against the Cavaliers and altered other shots, including a late drive by Thijs De Ridder that Okpara blocked during Virginia's comeback attempt. Opposing players had made only 30% of their shots around the rim against Okpara entering Sunday's game, per Synergy Sports data. He'll have to protect the rim against Iowa State, which had a significant advantage in paint points against Kentucky (34-20) -- but he won't have to do it alone.

Tennessee has the personnel to handle every one-on-one matchup defensively. The Vols can guard at every spot. They will have to put pressure on Tamin Lipsey, sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson, if he plays, to win. That defensive effort coupled with standout performances from Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament would be the formula for a Tennessee trip to the Elite Eight.

How Iowa State can advance to the Elite Eight: With or without Jefferson, Iowa State will have the same blueprint against Tennessee: move the ball to find the best shot on offense, force turnovers with defensive pressure and score on fast breaks. Although they didn't have Jefferson, who is a game-time decision because of an ankle injury, the Cyclones forced 20 turnovers in their second-round win over Kentucky. Playing through Lipsey -- who finished with 26 points, 10 assists and only three turnovers against Kentucky -- the Cyclones registered 150 points per 100 possessions and made 63% of their shots after halftime. They are 18-2 when Lipsey's assist-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1 or better.

Gillespie and Ament combined for five turnovers in Tennessee's second-round win over Virginia. Iowa State can pressure that duo into the same mistakes Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen (eight turnovers combined) made for Kentucky, even if Jefferson sits out another game. That's how the Cyclones can advance. -- Medcalf