Free agent pickups: Preseason promise, real fantasy results

The opening weeks of a new season are the best to take chances on prospective season-long contributors off the waiver wire. It's the first time we're getting data from games that matter since October, roles are beginning to crystallize and the seeds of players' winter adjustments are finally bearing fruit.

For Week 2, five players have done enough to warrant universal pickups, not only for what they might contribute to your fantasy baseball teams over the next several days, but for the possibility that each could become a long-term gem.

Parker Messick, SP, Cleveland Guardians (25.7% rostered): The Guardians keep on churning out productive starting pitchers, and Messick is an under-the-radar one, drafted 381st overall and in only 7.8% of ESPN leagues despite his posting a 2.72 ERA over seven late-2025 starts for the big club. The lefty has above-average command of six different pitches and, since his Aug. 20, 2025, debut he has the majors' fifth-best walk rate (4.4%) and a 36.5% whiff rate with his changeup. Messick placed 49th in Kiley McDaniel's preseason top 100 prospects, and he has a 0.82 ERA in his first two regular-season starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs. He's shaping up as more than a streaming candidate.

Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (6.6% rostered): His five-roto-category skill set has never really been in question, as he has hit .257/.338/.442 with 14 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 149 career MLB games, but injuries have been his primary obstacle. Fully healthy after multiple surgeries on his left shoulder, Mitchell is scorching the ball with authority in a way he hadn't previously at this level, delivering 15.4% Barrel and 61.5% hard-hit rates along with a 98.4 mph average exit velocity -- his career numbers in those categories are 9.3%/39.8%/89.8 -- over the season's first week-plus.

Yes, the sample is small, and there's no promise that he can stay completely healthy for 162 games, but the outfielder has been vocal about the effects of his shoulder issues on his play in the past. At the very least he's worth the speculative pickup for streaming starts in his hitter-friendly home environment.

Max Muncy, 3B/2B, Athletics (9.0% rostered): "The other Max Muncy" had a forgettable rookie campaign in 2025 -- 91 3B-eligibles scored more fantasy points than him -- but he played in the Arizona Fall League as a means to fine-tune his swing, which appears to be paying dividends thus far. Muncy hit .380/.466/.800 with five home runs in 58 spring plate appearances, claiming the Athletics' everyday third base job, then scored the sixth-most fantasy points among 3B-eligibles while posting 22.2% Barrel and 72.2% hard-hit rates. He had 10.1%/32.4% numbers in those departments in 2025.

While those will surely regress over the full 162, the improvements make him a certain streamer in his Sutter Health Park home games, and perhaps even a full-time fantasy contributor.

Kodai Senga, SP, New York Mets (42.4% rostered): I'll admit it, I took no shares, holding too many concerns about his shaky control, injury history and what was a big drop in fastball velocity last season. Senga has looked quite good in his first two starts, however, throwing a 96.7 mph average fastball that's two full ticks over his 2025 number and one over 2023. Plus, his signature "ghost fork" has generated seven of his 16 total strikeouts and a 53.3% whiff rate. Like Mitchell, Senga brings no guarantee of complete health over 162 games, but his returns thus far are intriguing enough to warrant universally adding him for however long this hot spell lasts.

Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (16.3% rostered): Doesn't it feel like forever that we've been waiting for the prospective Walker breakthrough? A top-20 overall prospect entering his 2023 debut year, Walker entered his fourth MLB season batting .240/.302/.378 while averaging 16 home runs, 65 RBI and 11 stolen bases per 162 games played. Though he hit just just .204/.255/.273 with 16 K's in 47 trips to the plate during spring training, he spent extra time working in the Cardinals' hitting lab at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, which seems to be paying dividends.

Walker's 28 fantasy points through the first week-plus are 12th-best among outfielders, and he has dramatically cut down on his chase rate (23.8%, compared to 33.1% for his career). The rebuilding Cardinals can afford him a maximum of patience in their everyday lineup, and perhaps he's finally figuring things out.

Two-start pickup

Andrew Painter, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (46.4% rostered)

Long touted one of the game's top pitching prospects -- he was still ranked McDaniel's eighth-best at the position during the preseason, after beginning his peak run on those lists as the No. 2 starter on the 2023 list -- Painter's route to the big leagues was detoured by July 2023 Tommy John surgery. Now fully healthy and with a clear path to the Phillies rotation, he posted a 2.31 ERA in four spring starts and 5 1/3 innings of one-run, eight-strikeout baseball in his debut last Tuesday. Between his 96.7 mph fastball and whiff-generating slider, he has plenty in his repertoire to be at least a matchups type for fantasy managers.

For Week 2, Painter faces the San Francisco Giants in their pitcher-friendly home ballpark, Oracle Park, and an Arizona Diamondbacks offense that has been held to two-or-fewer runs in six of their first 10 games. Best yet, he's available in more than half of ESPN leagues.

Deeper-league pickups

Deep (12-team mixed): Bryce Elder, SP, Atlanta Braves (19.4% rostered)

He's a tough pitcher to trust after he posted a combined 5.59 ERA in 34 starts between 2024-25, but between his hot finish last year, the adjustments he made to his delivery, and his strong, rotation-capturing spring training, he's worth the speculative add in any league deeper than ESPN's standard. Elder posted a 2.82 ERA in his final seven starts of 2025, and he has back-to-back scoreless starts to begin 2026, leaning more heavily upon his slider that has accounted for eight of his 13 K's and a 32.4% whiff rate, as well as a cutter that has helped him neutralize left-handed hitters.

Deeper (15-team mixed): Rhett Lowder, SP, Cincinnati Reds (6.6% rostered)

Netiher Lowder nor Elder have made quite the level of adjustments that would have put them in this column's first section alongside Messick and Senga, but they're not far off. Lowder missed most of 2025 due to elbow and oblique issues, but has returned healthy with a 93.2-mph four-seamer and a 92.5-mph sinker, slider and changeup, all of which he commands well. He's not an elite strikeout artist, which paints him closer to a streaming type due to his hitter-friendly home ballpark (Great American Ball Park), but there should be a good share of favorable matchups in his future in what's likely to be one of the weaker-hitting divisions overall.

Deepest (AL- and NL-only leagues): Ben Brown, SP/RP, Cubs (1.5% rostered)

Cade Horton's injury (forearm strain) opens up a spot in the Cubs rotation, and while Colin Rea's past success in the role probably makes him the favorite in the short term, Brown and his filthy knuckle curve lingers as a prospective high-upside starter or short reliever. Brown should find a fantasy-relevant role somewhere in due time, as he has the kind of beneath-the-radar numbers that suggest he's either a minor tweak or another opportunity away from a true breakthrough.