Closer stock watch: Don't run from Carlos Estevez just yet

Last season, nobody earned more saves than Kansas City Royals RHP Carlos Estevez. However, after just one discouraging appearance opening weekend, nobody was dropped in more ESPN standard leagues than Estevez.

Estevez, 33, who previously saved games for the Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies, posted a 2.45 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with 42 saves during his first season with the Royals. Other relief pitchers flashed better statistics in strikeouts and run prevention -- but again, nobody saved more games.

Estevez was already someone to watch closely after a discouraging spring in which his fastball velocity was notably down. He permitted four runs and four walks in his five spring five innings, including serving up three home runs. He entered Saturday's game with a 2-0 ninth-inning lead against the Atlanta Braves. He left with a loss and a 162.00 ERA (six earned runs while retiring only one batter) and an 18.00 WHIP. Journeyman 1B Dominic Smith cranked a game-winning grand slam in the sport's signature blow-up of the weekend. Myriad fantasy managers are not waiting for his second outing. Is this wise?

RHP Lucas Erceg, saver of 14 games in 2024 and two games for the Royals last season, stepped in to close out Sunday's 4-1 win, as the Royals salvaged one game of the series. With both Estevez and Erceg unavailable Monday against the Minnesota Twins, veteran RHP John Schreiber earned the save. Estevez, hit by a Michael Harris II grounder on his left ankle Saturday, may need an IL stint, whether it's the ankle or the bloated ERA that's the real reason.

OK, so which pitcher will lead the Royals in saves this season? That is what we really want to know, right? Is it Estevez, Erceg or, we suppose, Schreiber? Despite the rough start, I think we must still pick Estevez. Of course, we must be patient, too.

While it certainly may be the case that Estevez, who averaged 91.3 mph with his fastball on Saturday (it was 95.9 mph in 2025) is so compromised physically and/or mechanically that he cedes closing duties full-time, we probably are not there yet. Royals manager Matt Quatraro relied on Estevez (fifth among active pitchers currently on rosters with 124 saves) last season and then again this past weekend. Estevez is an extreme fly ball pitcher, seemingly made for spacious Kauffman Stadium, but now the outfield dimensions are a bit shorter. The organization wants/needs Estevez to thrive, with Erceg, Schreiber and LHP Matt Strahm in setup roles. That is the plan.

Regardless, it isn't even April yet and Estevez, fifth among relief pitchers in fantasy points last season and a mid-round pick in most leagues, is already down to 51% rostered in ESPN. For shallow ESPN daily leagues, in which there are only seven active pitchers (and where holds figure into the scoring), sure, there may be little reason to wait for Estevez because free agency is littered with so many relief options. However, in standard industry formats, particularly roto/category-based ones in which saves are the key -- and especially in AL-only formats -- aim to be patient.

This all could still work out, though perhaps not exactly like last season.

Stock rising

Ryan Helsley, RHP, Baltimore Orioles: Helsley permitted 16 earned runs over 20 innings after being traded from the St. Louis Cardinals to the New York Mets late last season (7.20 ERA, 1.80 WHIP), so it was easy to wonder which version would show up for Baltimore. So far, things look positive. Helsley saved a pair of games against the Twins this past weekend, averaging 99.8 mph with his fastball and issuing nary a walk. It hardly means Helsley will save 49 games, as he did for the 2024 Cardinals, but it is likely that his nightmare Mets era was aberrant. Helsley may be a top-10 fantasy reliever again.

Clayton Beeter, RHP, Washington Nationals: It wasn't a great surprise that Beeter earned the first save chance for Washington. While he is a bit of a journeyman and he lacks closing experience, Beeter pitched well for the Nationals late last season, posting a 2.49 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 21⅔ innings. Besides, this isn't exactly a bullpen flush with closing candidates. Beeter, 27, has dealt with shoulder and control problems for years, even last season and the Nationals seem unlikely to win more games than they lose in 2026. However, if every save counts in your league, Beeter might post at least 20 of them.

Jordan Romano, RHP, Angels: Let's just say things did not work out with Romano in Philadelphia last season (8.23 ERA, 10 HR in 42⅔ innings). He joined the Angels on a rather low-cost deal and, with much of the closer competition injured, Romano earned the first save chance in an Opening Day win over the Houston Astros. It wasn't so long ago that Romano saved 36 games in consecutive seasons for the Toronto Blue Jays (2022-23), but it would be quite surprising if he returned to that level. Romano's fastball averaged 96.5 mph in 2024. It averaged just 94.6 mph this past weekend. Velocity isn't everything, but we have ample reason to be quite skeptical Romano will thrive for six months this year. Let someone else take the chance.

Stock falling

Bryan Abreu, RHP, Astros: Abreu was the obvious choice to fill in as closer for injured LHP Josh Hader (biceps), but his first two outings against the Angels during opening weekend were far from clean. Abreu, arguably the top setup reliever in the sport with more than 100 strikeouts in each of the last three seasons (and a composite 2.40 ERA and 1.12 WHIP) permitted a Nolan Schanuel three-run home run on Saturday, then he threw only four of 14 pitches for strikes (while walking two hitters) in Sunday's save chance and needed rescue from LHP Bryan King.

Abreu was the No. 11 relief pitcher in ESPN ADP. Holds count for points, but still, there was reason to believe he would pile on saves for a while. Now it appears Hader may return in April, and there would be no closer controversy here. Keep Abreu rostered, but things looked better a week ago.

Griffin Jax, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays: Jax pitched well for the Rays after last season's deadline trade and, with longtime Rays closer RHP Pete Fairbanks leaving for the Miami Marlins via free agency (and thriving so far), Jax seemed as good a choice as any to save games for manager Kevin Cash. Fantasy managers certainly wanted to believe it, at least, which is why Jax was the No. 12 reliever in ESPN ADP -- far too optimistic.

Jax was summoned in the sixth inning on Opening Day at St. Louis, and he served up an Alec Burleson home run. Two days later, Jax started the 10th inning with a one-run lead and lost the game on a JJ Wetherholt two-run single. Jax is durable and solid enough that fantasy managers should get numbers, but whether that means 25 saves, 25 holds or neither figure is more problematic than most realized just a few weeks ago.